Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1d87d617aa5ff7f80e6e931baed09e6accc5cd680df1266a272214a4e78b19e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 50c | 4,512$2,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,238.14 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,903$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 7c | 3,258$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.58 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f2…34d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,969$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 1,384$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.54 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 1,303$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.16 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…662dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,238$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 42c | 1,043$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.22 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc560…adbabacked Yes | 56c | 955.91$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -63%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 15c | 939.51$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.63 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 41c | 891.86$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.17 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 848.36$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.74 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…ab50backed No | 26c | 757.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.95 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae37…90f2backed Yes | 4c | 694.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 54c | 653.4$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.08 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa00…3316backed Yes | 76c | 635.25$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 29c | 631.34$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.38 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed No | 6c | 581.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.35 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 65c | 573.78$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.72 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 68c | 507.52$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.55 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 44c | 503.65$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.59 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked Yes | 63c | 436.09$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.06 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 33c | 421.72$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.19 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 49c | 421.24$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.44 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 78c | 419.2$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.72 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes | 3c | 403.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 6c | 392.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.06 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…36d6backed Yes | 9c | 383.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 368.3$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 14c | 366.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 332.52$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 332.45$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9a…f88abacked Yes | 38c | 331.38$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.65 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…6ca1backed No | 18c | 327.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.58 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 9c | 323.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.99 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked Yes | 58c | 311.66$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.35 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 42c | 304.56$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.98 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Yes | 78c | 294.39$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.92 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 14c | 265.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.18 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 41c | 261.56$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 78c | 257.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.91 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…7ababacked Yes | 49c | 248.82$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.92 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 52c | 220.5$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.54 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe736…9d9fbacked No | 52c | 215.69$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.47 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 70c | 200.02$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.16 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…b552backed Yes | 61c | 197.39$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.09 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 48c | 196.3$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2946…8eb4backed Yes | 12c | 192.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d8…cea4backed Yes | 74c | 191.74$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.3 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 39c | 191.13$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.92 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 54c | 177.89$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.49 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 31c | 174.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.04 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 78c | 171.94$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c40…fcf2backed Yes | 15c | 163.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 35c | 154.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 18c | 151.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.25 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 67c | 150$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 51c | 138.51$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.72 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 43c | 126.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.72 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4a…1a1dbacked Yes | 58c | 120.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed No | 18c | 116$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.18 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 28c | 113.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.73 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 14c | 111.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.03 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 75c | 107.91$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed Yes | 78c | 106.7$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.91 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 50c | 99.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 30c | 97.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.56 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 26c | 96.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.09 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes | 64c | 95.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed No | 30c | 95.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 12c | 93.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.85 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 61c | 92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.33 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 66c | 90.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 89.72$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 74c | 89.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 30c | 86.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 14c | 84.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.72 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 58c | 84.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 15c | 83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.96 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 50c | 80.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…9b18backed No | 19c | 79.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf1…e774backed Yes | 63c | 78.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 58c | 78.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 50c | 75.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed No | 50c | 75.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 25c | 72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed No | 30c | 66.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c41…500dbacked Yes | 69c | 66.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 40c | 66.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5160…80d2backed Yes | 24c | 65.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 19c | 63.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.82 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 68c | 62.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 74c | 61.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 57.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x165a…bd31backed Yes | 54c | 48.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.