TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$71,582
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$75,736

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,582 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x784a…06c3backed Yes50c4,512$2,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,238.1434050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes2c3,903$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.851,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes7c3,258$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.583,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f2…34d0backed Yes1c1,969$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.891118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No50c1,384$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.545,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No62c1,303$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.162,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x509d…662dbacked Yes1c1,238$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No42c1,043$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.2276755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc560…adbabacked Yes56c955.91$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.75825%2 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-63%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x451a…3b01backed No15c939.51$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.6317858.4%104 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes41c891.86$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.175,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No59c848.36$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.744,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c10…ab50backed No26c757.95$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.951675%12 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+36.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xae37…90f2backed Yes4c694.42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No54c653.4$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.082,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa00…3316backed Yes76c635.25$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.09850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed Yes29c631.34$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.3816724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6973…b296backed No6c581.54$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.3513728.5%39 W · 98 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+52.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No65c573.78$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.7288650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked No68c507.52$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.5529953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No44c503.65$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.591,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa739…e31abacked Yes63c436.09$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.064953.1%26 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No33c421.72$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.191,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes49c421.24$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.444,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes78c419.2$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.7224466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes3c403.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.976445.3%29 W · 35 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No6c392.23$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.062,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cf7…36d6backed Yes9c383.37$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.492045%9 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No52c368.3$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.475,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes14c366.29$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0215923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes40c332.52$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.6412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes26c332.45$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f9a…f88abacked Yes38c331.38$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.652920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-31.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0273…6ca1backed No18c327.4$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.585056%28 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-13%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No9c323.6$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.992,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd209…8dbabacked Yes58c311.66$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.356752.2%35 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No42c304.56$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.983,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bb0…c328backed Yes78c294.39$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.924447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No14c265.86$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.1812365%80 W · 43 L+0.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No41c261.56$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1543,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes78c257.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.915832.8%19 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x840a…7ababacked Yes49c248.82$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.922254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-15.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed Yes52c220.5$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5443139.2%169 W · 262 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe736…9d9fbacked No52c215.69$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.472138.1%8 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+31.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes70c200.02$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.1671031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa581…b552backed Yes61c197.39$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.091968.4%13 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick68cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes48c196.3$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.51,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2946…8eb4backed Yes12c192.15$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9d8…cea4backed Yes74c191.74$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.33234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No39c191.13$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.9271159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4066…2407backed No54c177.89$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.4913243.9%58 W · 74 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No31c174.21$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.042,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed No78c171.94$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1225362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c40…fcf2backed Yes15c163.44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.63771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes35c154.67$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5231219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No18c151.22$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.2598565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ba…da46backed Yes67c150$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.514635.6%52 W · 94 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No51c138.51$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.724,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No43c126.12$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.722,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f4a…1a1dbacked Yes58c120.72$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes9c120$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8436648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5eaa…3561backed No18c116$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1810636.8%39 W · 67 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed No28c113.78$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.732,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No14c111.34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0390734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa817…95d7backed Yes75c107.91$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3216934.9%59 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe399…b921backed Yes78c106.7$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.917150.7%36 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfced…03d9backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210141.6%42 W · 59 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+82%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes64c99.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9925175.7%190 W · 61 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No50c99.73$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.0498160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed No30c97.08$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.5611833.1%39 W · 79 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32b5…db37backed No26c96.07$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.0913751.8%71 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes64c95.81$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.66431.3%20 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ff7…82c5backed No30c95.7$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2411515.7%18 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed No12c93.45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8541051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked Yes61c92$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3379040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes66c90.32$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.281,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No71c89.72$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.074,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes74c89.29$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No30c86.64$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0165965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No14c84.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.723,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc950…9420backed Yes58c84.29$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9413035.4%46 W · 84 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No15c83$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9663757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8302…8b44backed Yes50c80.34$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011737.6%44 W · 73 L-8.8wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd0eb…9b18backed No19c79.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.34273.8%31 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0bf1…e774backed Yes63c78.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.61366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+60.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes58c78.64$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5448919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes50c75.82$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.112,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaff…5f75backed No50c75.2$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.437047.1%33 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No25c72$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.9728456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7cf…65d5backed No30c66.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.657817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c41…500dbacked Yes69c66.22$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.667627.6%21 W · 55 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No40c66.21$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.61,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5160…80d2backed Yes24c65.63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed No19c63.82$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.8244448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7439…b8efbacked Yes68c62.38$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2913238.6%51 W · 81 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes74c61.78$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5917831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No23c57.07$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9429717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3854232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes74c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.062,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x165a…bd31backed Yes54c48.56$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2650%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.