Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd814e357c478ec957e35524013997bd7a04898cf6f0d969413a77c4611ffe8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 46c | 327.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.48 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 50c | 222.17$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.94 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 10c | 215.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 41c | 212.35$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 202.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 187.96$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 55c | 186.62$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.13 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 33c | 173.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 168.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 139.51$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.54 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 137.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 78c | 122$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 120.05$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 117.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 43c | 117$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.62 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 114.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 46c | 109.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 36c | 108.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 61c | 99.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 45c | 89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 86.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 78c | 77.73$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 49c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 47c | 65.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 64.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 64c | 62.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 51c | 62.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 53c | 58.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4409…cf5bbacked Yes | 49c | 57.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 44c | 56.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…e968backed No | 44c | 56.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 51c | 52.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…b6a4backed No | 51c | 50.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bab…5e85backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7510…6cb0backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 36c | 46.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 41.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 66c | 41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 53c | 40.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 49c | 40.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 44c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 39.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 66c | 39.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 65c | 38.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 52c | 37.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 50c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 57c | 32.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 43c | 32.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 32.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 32.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed Yes | 51c | 30.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 43c | 30.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf6…7521backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 55c | 29.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 55c | 28.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 46c | 27.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 63c | 27.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed Yes | 47c | 23.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 64c | 23.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 61c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…813abacked Yes | 70c | 22.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…60eebacked Yes | 53c | 19.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…7852backed Yes | 62c | 16.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed Yes | 75c | 14.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.