Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dec07c5825c085146be7eafb677d14b503dce1a88e10aef3cf5ee5c91fa1626
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 697.14$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 34c | 367.22$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.5 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 7c | 314.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 219.95$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.18 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 30c | 217.54$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.67 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 35c | 199.55$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed No | 63c | 157.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.59 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 33c | 153$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 66c | 144.42$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 127.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 110.76$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 15c | 109$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 11c | 107.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 106.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 78c | 103.92$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 38c | 89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 79.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 75.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 36c | 71.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 70.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 20c | 66.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 67c | 65.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 61.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…d7dcbacked Yes | 33c | 60.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 67c | 60.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 41c | 58.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed Yes | 26c | 56.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…b6a4backed No | 71c | 49.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 75c | 44.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 36c | 39.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 38.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 70c | 36.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 34.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 67c | 30.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 68c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 29.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 72c | 27.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 72c | 24.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 62c | 24.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 66c | 23.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c33…f910backed No | 71c | 21.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 63c | 20.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa38…474fbacked No | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 17.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…6cefbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.