TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by July 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$172,949
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$185,833

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,949 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5a38…2904backed No48c35,256$16,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,333.122100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+95.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc12b…0ed6backed Yes52c35,256$18,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,333.12250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes0c10,269$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.972939.2%27 W · 266 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Yes1c5,964$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.28742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick24cpaid+70%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x654b…c791backed Yes39c2,787$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.14812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-76.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa486…25d4backed No73c2,598$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.072326.1%6 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes41c2,512$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.783917.9%7 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+63.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked No55c2,183$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.823100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+110.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x63bf…e319backed Yes39c2,160$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.41618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick26cpaid+77.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes44c1,855$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.9612133.1%40 W · 81 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xface…0572backed Yes27c1,695$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+47.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes39c1,376$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.257834.6%27 W · 51 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-39.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes55c1,287$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.627625%19 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x02e5…1ad6backed Yes16c1,276$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.6430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked Yes2c1,156$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.172416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-47.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No60c1,080$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.287254.2%39 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No38c1,026$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.39750.5%49 W · 48 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda23…080ebacked No71c1,000$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.552729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No48c887.38$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.132536%9 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c4…3e4ebacked Yes8c864.72$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.481533.3%5 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+312.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f33…89cfbacked No35c864.64$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.07944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f22…fdd3backed Yes29c861.97$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes44c854.69$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.9454934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes27c757.69$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.472944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3,440.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe785…1180backed No63c720.18$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.17250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9833…0b32backed Yes4c659.14$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed No55c642.02$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.025628.6%16 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fae…1675backed No71c610.61$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe10…8d89backed No67c555.82$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.824100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+63.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No24c554.17$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.1711850.8%60 W · 58 L+29.2wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+132.4%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes41c543.27$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.3188448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe781…5e52backed No47c522.12$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.121050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No35c513.19$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.132560%15 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+58.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes76c500$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.798838.6%34 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2de1…5decbacked Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick29cpaid+138.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes59c405.99$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.433357.6%19 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+58.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes52c395.52$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.47425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+85.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No30c392.75$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.3327828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes68c391$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.6938023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9d…a540backed Yes50c378.79$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.761844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-36.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7832…6cd7backed No72c362.17$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked No53c358.25$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.683545.7%16 W · 19 L+4.6wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+15.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed No42c350$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.57047.1%33 W · 37 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+46.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xab95…c8cfbacked No73c342.88$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a0…ca0cbacked No76c334.41$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.112100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x779f…c35cbacked No79c332.79$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes65c295.61$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.091926.3%5 W · 14 L-5.6wins-0.30per pick56cpaid-48.1%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Yes41c290$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.71729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed No75c282.99$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.591346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked No74c276.06$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.71862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78fe…f9cbbacked No74c271.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1419…72fdbacked No79c260$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa069…1e59backed No39c256.54$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.542100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+569.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes58c253$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.748035%28 W · 52 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes61c242$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.72634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-31.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcebd…3769backed Yes29c233.1$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes21c219$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.996538.5%25 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb01b…e951backed No46c216.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.71425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-45.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d1…88d0backed No46c215.43$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+115.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51cc…c6c9backed Yes60c208.95$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.35per pick49cpaid-80.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes47c201.19$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.843318.2%6 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No36c200$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1281,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed No32c200$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1368123.5%19 W · 62 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x42b7…e330backed No72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes35c199.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705532.7%18 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ec…b5fcbacked No51c193.97$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.831457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64f7…5bd7backed Yes10c192$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9907…d5f1backed No58c191.59$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No39c188.14$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.074334.9%15 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-42.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No37c174.76$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.9714033.6%47 W · 93 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked No57c160$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.43551.4%18 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7987…e367backed No69c159.71$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.712020%4 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e5…b7e6backed No75c158$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd19…0f4abacked Yes65c154.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-56.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff9a…22fdbacked Yes44c153.08$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed No60c150$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6012920.9%27 W · 102 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Yes52c149.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.994847.9%23 W · 25 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes20c148.61$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.481435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+49.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x052c…3136backed Yes57c148.35$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf21…18debacked No71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4529…9b8dbacked No67c136.74$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.74250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed Yes56c135$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.63132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd098…3307backed No38c133.3$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.31154.5%6 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.30per pick25cpaid+166.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x91e1…1282backed No71c122.38$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.792832.1%9 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-49.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa01b…fca8backed No61c118.1$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+62.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7018…05acbacked Yes27c114.81$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes40c114.16$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.417238.9%28 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x960e…bd12backed No79c113.86$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No61c112.95$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.988048.8%39 W · 41 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed Yes21c111.73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.861631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-41.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes61c102.67$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0157636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca75…b071backed Yes68c102.33$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.322035%7 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf639…5838backed Yes52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524822.9%11 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc009…9561backed No51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+64.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb277…d809backed No49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512532%8 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1088…b813backed No31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.813639%53 W · 83 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7fa…16cbbacked No43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d69…8f9ebacked No73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-65.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ca8…ecd4backed No32c93.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.71757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+140.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e72…9938backed No42c93$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.94837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick21cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.