Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b42713e4da00e2bfa7aa9fecf106fdfc4685bb4f169a19dd306d81b9f7f9f18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 55c | 474.59$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.76 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 58c | 427.58$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed No | 71c | 350.39$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.39 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 151$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 135$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.94 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 120.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.46 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…44efbacked Yes | 67c | 119.79$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 113.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.93 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 44c | 109$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…b430backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 96.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 85.44$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 45c | 76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 74.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 50c | 70.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x898e…0ed0backed Yes | 76c | 66.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 48c | 65.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 44c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 77c | 64.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x202e…619cbacked Yes | 69c | 55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 43c | 53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 49c | 53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 38c | 52.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 25c | 51.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 45c | 43.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed Yes | 63c | 40.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 45c | 39.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…60eebacked Yes | 58c | 31.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 38c | 29.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 61c | 29.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…4a59backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 52c | 19.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 76c | 15.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e13…f6b6backed Yes | 76c | 13.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 1?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on August 1?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on August 1?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 1?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.