TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Another US military action against Iran by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$997,664
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$985,494

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $997,664 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 698 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa3d3…d424backed No51c46,186$23,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,509.187740.3%31 W · 46 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes29c37,751$10,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,870.39837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82b1…7579backed Yes46c35,710$16,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,552.381266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes2c27,109$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.83514.3%5 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes1c16,972$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.5590%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb7f…1db2backed Yes69c14,528$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed No44c14,242$6,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,036.15728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes8c13,750$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04912910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes53c12,899$6,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,876.267041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fa…1a14backed No68c12,738$8,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,076.466100%6 W · 0 L+3.8wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+277.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked No44c12,419$5,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,980.22941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes24c12,134$2,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,874.716028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbc6…a113backed Yes50c11,989$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x646b…5112backed Yes16c10,190$1,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes13c9,624$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.5217850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed No41c9,510$3,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,618.113240.6%13 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes3c9,399$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.035514.5%8 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-58.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b62…650ebacked No61c9,239$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,638.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b84…bae0backed Yes3c7,504$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.12922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-64.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x656e…65d2backed Yes1c7,416$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.582920.7%6 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-59.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed No77c7,228$5,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,635.216544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes3c7,151$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.6611428.1%32 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f8a…9506backed Yes75c7,005$5,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,275.6130%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes9c6,856$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.2818322.4%41 W · 142 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes19c6,441$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.221022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Yes13c5,937$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.775740.4%23 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48aa…fccdbacked No34c5,730$1,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,764.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+191.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes17c5,300$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.068111.1%9 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4b0…8b95backed Yes21c5,300$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.731241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+30.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes1c5,254$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid+84.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x238a…1574backed Yes11c4,746$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd063…5ccdbacked No47c4,665$2,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,468.97580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+25.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No76c4,451$3,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.417045.7%32 W · 38 L+7.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+66.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfc6b…afc9backed Yes46c4,340$2,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,013.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe274…ee86backed No26c4,271$1,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,154.29922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick12cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6e0…98cebacked No69c3,977$2,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,246.42366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-8.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3497…f76dbacked Yes8c3,827$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes40c3,727$1,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,486.429549.5%47 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdef7…4fd2backed Yes62c3,696$2,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,282.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe88…c1f6backed Yes8c3,625$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes64c3,574$2,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,277.962619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-61.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8420…6183backed Yes26c3,519$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.487147.9%34 W · 37 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1af…d889backed Yes5c3,500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1603125.8%8 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+66.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0cbf…4665backed No36c3,500$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,240560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+55.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf05…b6cebacked Yes67c3,485$2,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,334.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c3,458$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.653989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes74c3,225$2,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,387.44535.6%16 W · 29 L-6.1wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x00b7…cfa0backed Yes6c3,000$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed81…bd47backed Yes26c2,983$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa84f…bc44backed No48c2,959$1,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,541.46875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+33.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No79c2,956$2,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.9537844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes1c2,876$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.37397.7%3 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-55.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes9c2,796$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.8718516.2%30 W · 155 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eff…1071backed Yes1c2,767$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x922f…69d4backed No55c2,712$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.37650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c2,664$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.541,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30d6…8c9dbacked No45c2,645$1,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,451.33580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+40.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x612a…21dcbacked Yes9c2,625$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ad…337dbacked Yes8c2,573$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.82825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd339…d3a1backed No55c2,500$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-54.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No45c2,448$1,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,351.4516144.7%72 W · 89 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7d2…68cabacked Yes51c2,382$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09ab…e832backed No23c2,360$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,825.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+341%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0887…b235backed Yes55c2,301$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.78944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes9c2,274$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.6814624.7%36 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed No50c2,273$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.55862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+131.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d91…c8f4backed Yes4c2,261$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No71c2,260$1,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65917452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54a0…4134backed Yes6c2,205$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d8d…8f77backed Yes1c2,200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2977…7d1fbacked Yes17c2,131$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf904…85ecbacked Yes10c2,118$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick42cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed No71c2,109$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.092250%11 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcec6…0b1abacked Yes26c2,033$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.81915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-36%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12b8…66c5backed Yes18c2,000$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f67…978bbacked Yes7c2,000$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes57c2,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1402842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5ec…7b2ebacked Yes54c2,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.971656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x822e…5febbacked Yes22c1,957$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5964…776bbacked Yes14c1,950$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.531330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-57.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e31…454dbacked Yes51c1,913$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.493650%18 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3195…40e0backed No58c1,900$1,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed Yes57c1,899$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.284216.7%7 W · 35 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-34.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed No31c1,869$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,289.787447.3%35 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf56c…4068backed Yes5c1,841$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbffe…6492backed No48c1,800$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4679…5d5bbacked Yes2c1,780$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed No78c1,777$1,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.164323.3%10 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb09…0f04backed Yes3c1,774$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe162…8a81backed Yes6c1,730$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+52.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No49c1,686$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.4114230.3%43 W · 99 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa735…b423backed Yes6c1,616$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001850%9 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+35%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ab0…d582backed Yes7c1,600$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1041241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc160…ce0abacked Yes39c1,573$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.663026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f18…dd7fbacked Yes5c1,559$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd189…06f4backed Yes16c1,533$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.361723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes1c1,533$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.978331.3%26 W · 57 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3da…f328backed Yes21c1,525$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3131163.6%7 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+90.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes46c1,512$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.53043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d93…456dbacked Yes7c1,500$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.