Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d3ca2e4cdf2c002904c89bf5c3b843bb2c779d3b1d7dbfe9c50f3efd50666fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $314,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $284,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $314,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 376 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 18c | 36,669$6,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,605.26 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed Yes | 16c | 22,738$3,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,563.57 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac3c…d637backed No | 55c | 21,700$11,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,765 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x484a…faf1backed Yes | 45c | 21,700$9,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,765 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb1…fc21backed No | 64c | 18,925$12,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,792.32 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x95ba…6a41backed Yes | 57c | 10,770$6,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,143.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 69c | 7,964$5,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,435.29 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6637…ce15backed Yes | 9c | 6,684$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…ccd9backed Yes | 35c | 4,700$1,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,625.68 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 15c | 3,364$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.36 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 3,149$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.3 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed No | 64c | 3,053$1,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.5 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 18c | 2,491$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.27 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…b810backed No | 60c | 2,465$1,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 2,337$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.73 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f8…8c04backed Yes | 6c | 2,334$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 2,005$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 6c | 1,998$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.22 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e24…67d0backed Yes | 34c | 1,997$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed No | 73c | 1,844$1,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.93 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,742$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.36 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 3c | 1,720$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8513…6540backed Yes | 1c | 1,632$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba3…a811backed Yes | 51c | 1,570$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ded…7334backed Yes | 6c | 1,563$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 71c | 1,529$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.6 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 35c | 1,401$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.7 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 57c | 1,387$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.5 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5c…6c0fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,365$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7809…196abacked Yes | 40c | 1,300$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 1,289$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…0019backed Yes | 32c | 1,215$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 17c | 1,177$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc881…e370backed Yes | 32c | 1,166$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.99 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd613…76efbacked No | 62c | 1,164$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…6df6backed Yes | 29c | 1,148$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf04a…10a3backed Yes | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 65c | 1,118$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.13 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 46c | 1,071$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.89 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 1,056$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 6c | 1,044$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3aa…14dcbacked Yes | 18c | 1,026$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes | 39c | 1,017$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.85 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 34c | 1,004$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.15 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fa…5e4ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb493…f55cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…7a70backed Yes | 16c | 967.44$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.72 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…31e4backed No | 73c | 930.21$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…926cbacked Yes | 24c | 916.08$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 912$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.83 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80b8…9c0ebacked No | 78c | 871$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.85 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…fe51backed Yes | 72c | 851.69$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2532…7487backed Yes | 40c | 824.06$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bb…27f9backed Yes | 7c | 804$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fac…63f8backed Yes | 25c | 750.14$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.61 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba7f…5036backed No | 58c | 720.72$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 41c | 709.34$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.07 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 700$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e8…8ff5backed Yes | 27c | 660.95$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0f…cea3backed No | 74c | 623.49$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40dd…6a93backed No | 64c | 622.28$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 613.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 36c | 611.36$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 45c | 607.61$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.52 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 27c | 604.98$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.49 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 7c | 600$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…15a1backed Yes | 8c | 587.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed Yes | 39c | 576.19$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.39 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafa0…e2b0backed No | 60c | 543.66$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 58c | 542.99$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.24 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…3272backed Yes | 12c | 537.05$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ed…7c6fbacked No | 58c | 522.63$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed Yes | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 27c | 500$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 7c | 490.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 131 | 6.1%8 W · 123 L | -10.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 488.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…4fa8backed Yes | 47c | 469.99$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 50c | 467.7$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.28 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c24…b10ebacked Yes | 16c | 440.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…6a57backed Yes | 23c | 433.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 8c | 429.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb7…a5b3backed Yes | 48c | 427.36$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.35 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf331…2978backed Yes | 16c | 422.3$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked Yes | 19c | 416.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.26 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…be31backed Yes | 52c | 401.83$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b3…eddcbacked Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 16c | 398.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d6…012cbacked No | 50c | 397.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 27c | 361.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.37 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…4a1cbacked Yes | 28c | 357.55$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.58 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3939…68cfbacked Yes | 9c | 344.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9924…80e6backed No | 41c | 340.72$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…77adbacked No | 60c | 340$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…34debacked Yes | 60c | 328.61$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 25c | 325$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +358.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 53c | 323.23$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.04 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 31c | 323.17$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.93 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…3990backed Yes | 45c | 320.15$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.