Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17f753b4f078cf6dc39332ab6d3ae031d99c717227b00114e9e8c361ef3bbadf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $189,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $147,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 259 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 1c | 10,825$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.1 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x487b…f382backed Yes | 3c | 7,525$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.4 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8e10…6a89backed No | 43c | 4,428$1,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,537.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,102$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7847…bdcdbacked Yes | 3c | 4,027$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.96 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 11c | 3,968$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.44 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b46…c611backed Yes | 6c | 3,678$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.53 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,333$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,284$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…2044backed No | 34c | 2,948$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,938.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 2,772$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…93edbacked Yes | 12c | 2,554$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.77 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,502$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…64bcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,329$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 2,290$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 9c | 2,205$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.79 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 2,082$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…9aa4backed Yes | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.98 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b68…2273backed Yes | 7c | 1,959$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…5505backed Yes | 1c | 1,920$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 2c | 1,783$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 1c | 1,750$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 1c | 1,700$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…937bbacked Yes | 33c | 1,519$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e18…941abacked Yes | 68c | 1,458$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.3 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 1,450$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 23c | 1,287$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.81 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df5…e945backed Yes | 17c | 1,192$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.84 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 1,158$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 5c | 1,121$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed Yes | 60c | 999.99$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2c…3d39backed Yes | 2c | 949.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…552ebacked Yes | 8c | 902.05$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…7752backed Yes | 30c | 891.89$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.19 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f36…e52fbacked Yes | 3c | 872.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa545…7e73backed Yes | 20c | 742.84$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1be…7c49backed No | 22c | 728.85$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 692.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…52cdbacked No | 30c | 666.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.67 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c61…2090backed Yes | 38c | 656.1$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 626.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc89…4106backed No | 20c | 614.07$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +155.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 50c | 567.77$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.89 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 76c | 542.84$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.63 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked No | 22c | 534.19$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.06 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 533.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed Yes | 42c | 527.78$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.8 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x121f…5e91backed No | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878f…1755backed Yes | 76c | 499.98$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.99 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…1ab3backed Yes | 3c | 492.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…3272backed Yes | 9c | 489.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ca…9e85backed Yes | 25c | 481.59$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…4bbebacked Yes | 47c | 456.93$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53b5…508ebacked Yes | 4c | 440.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 7c | 437.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…85bcbacked Yes | 15c | 408.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed No | 68c | 403.93$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.19 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 23c | 399.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.76 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…60a7backed Yes | 75c | 398.79$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Yes | 12c | 397.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…280bbacked No | 25c | 395.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.8 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…baacbacked Yes | 52c | 369.99$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked Yes | 79c | 350$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.5 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba97…e8d4backed No | 20c | 347.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 19c | 345.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.73 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb648…3090backed No | 29c | 340.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a1…3d1dbacked Yes | 26c | 331.85$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 30c | 324.9$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf853…21d0backed No | 44c | 322.05$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 22c | 317.48$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.77 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd98…9b63backed Yes | 13c | 285.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 28c | 276.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.53 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked No | 26c | 275.55$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.93 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 29c | 267.35$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.08 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8308…ca4bbacked No | 21c | 260$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebf…f3c5backed No | 39c | 259.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.01 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 66c | 252.47$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.2 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Yes | 33c | 251.53$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742d…a261backed No | 40c | 250.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a9…41d1backed No | 45c | 242.18$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.18 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d1…8c37backed No | 24c | 239.96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.37 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf12…d81cbacked Yes | 9c | 231.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 64c | 226.51$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.08 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…7d4cbacked Yes | 23c | 225.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +7.4wins | +0.34per pick | 39cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…9b78backed No | 46c | 217.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.63 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 215.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.06 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad3c…02f3backed Yes | 23c | 213.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…e187backed Yes | 26c | 211.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed Yes | 12c | 210$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 43c | 205.55$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.76 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 56c | 200.48$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.41 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…eb1bbacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2484…8963backed No | 18c | 199$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.97 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f3…1785backed Yes | 17c | 196.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -65%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 13c | 196.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.84 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf26…b0bdbacked No | 37c | 191.09$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229e…37f2backed Yes | 22c | 190.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 49c | 185.79$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.4 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd5…b5ccbacked Yes | 52c | 179.67$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 8c | 160.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.