Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34f302f94eca82bfcffa9b214e62b20c3cfe8fab6ea0dd55dd9993d0f83b901c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 6c | 5,617$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.65 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked No | 1c | 5,435$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.36 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed No | 1c | 2,557$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 3c | 2,285$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a1…3d1dbacked No | 21c | 1,981$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 4c | 1,656$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.83 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f3…c7e9backed Yes | 73c | 1,638$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +337.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 4c | 1,519$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 4c | 1,511$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 7c | 1,140$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.95 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 17c | 1,088$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.16 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d86fbacked Yes | 75c | 1,064$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked No | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 19c | 966.99$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.04 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7979…8b45backed No | 19c | 853.1$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.86 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked No | 5c | 753.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…9469backed No | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 3c | 689.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…d562backed No | 9c | 662.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed No | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…eb1bbacked No | 14c | 568.79$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.03 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…a226backed No | 8c | 525.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 508.32$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f5…001bbacked No | 12c | 496.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked No | 25c | 459.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.8 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 450$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5f…e63cbacked No | 16c | 400$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 5c | 396$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a1…9a5ebacked No | 12c | 393.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…304dbacked No | 9c | 360$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…6a5ebacked No | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked No | 14c | 263.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed No | 9c | 253.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 15c | 248.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 21c | 222.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 8c | 220.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…7e00backed No | 49c | 204.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c50…3e2cbacked No | 24c | 204.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed No | 12c | 190.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 17c | 187.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 17c | 182.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e19…3c52backed No | 15c | 177.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed Yes | 49c | 165.26$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.95 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614a…c581backed Yes | 62c | 161.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…adeebacked No | 70c | 151.84$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.46per pick | 62cpaid | -77%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…6149backed No | 12c | 151.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…c605backed No | 14c | 143.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4af…a344backed No | 8c | 140.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d2…c258backed No | 15c | 134.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9349…911fbacked Yes | 74c | 134.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a82…33c7backed No | 15c | 133.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f38…6720backed No | 9c | 119.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5c…4ce5backed No | 17c | 119.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea2…61e2backed No | 16c | 111.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 31c | 104.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed No | 10c | 100.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 26c | 99.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b8…4af7backed No | 15c | 98.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked No | 16c | 92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb39…e932backed No | 39c | 90.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 52 | 17.3%9 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed No | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked No | 17c | 85.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d6…50c7backed Yes | 77c | 84.3$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…ab6fbacked No | 27c | 74.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d8…c4bdbacked No | 26c | 73.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 19c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…baacbacked Yes | 77c | 66.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 53c | 65.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 19c | 65.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6c…b4b3backed No | 31c | 65.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…60a7backed Yes | 48c | 62.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…dab5backed No | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…23c5backed No | 44c | 59.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed No | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df7…0320backed No | 32c | 43.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x689e…a94dbacked Yes | 46c | 43.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a40…6ee8backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd25f…64a0backed No | 47c | 42.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceae…591abacked No | 36c | 42.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…8ea6backed No | 66c | 37.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -8.0wins | -0.50per pick | 68cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x7059…9549backed No | 27c | 37.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e3…79abbacked Yes | 68c | 36.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…9dcabacked Yes | 48c | 35.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…64bfbacked Yes | 74c | 35.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…d27cbacked No | 59c | 33.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…51e3backed Yes | 63c | 31.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…fd20backed No | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9557…6f2bbacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…d564backed Yes | 73c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.