Chess · resolved market
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4b6bc6f5280a5249e48d33bd7e47d8eeca47e83383a625591c9ff68363837bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd986…1320backed No | 39c | 1,993$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.67 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 77c | 1,021$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…4275backed No | 8c | 1,011$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…cb9fbacked Yes | 46c | 858.9$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 58c | 816.31$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca14…11bebacked Yes | 52c | 742.6$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 60c | 653.21$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.51 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 40c | 565.4$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.52 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…b113backed Yes | 71c | 563.99$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 50c | 536.32$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.62 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabca…cfd1backed Yes | 61c | 531.76$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1953…5607backed Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 40c | 499.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c5…7a13backed Yes | 45c | 486.14$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.14 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 43c | 470.77$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 49c | 446.94$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 39c | 411.94$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.74 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe326…5158backed No | 59c | 409.07$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed No | 59c | 400$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes | 49c | 394.02$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.74 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce4…e4cfbacked Yes | 60c | 331.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56d5…1945backed Yes | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ad…10c3backed Yes | 65c | 300$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Yes | 66c | 274.69$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc835…15acbacked No | 33c | 250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 47c | 243.52$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb484…341dbacked Yes | 62c | 233.42$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 66c | 227.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.35 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 45c | 213.65$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.51 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 40c | 204$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x571b…4f25backed No | 46c | 194.02$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 19c | 181.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 56c | 153.64$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.62 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…60eebacked Yes | 60c | 152.11$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…2030backed No | 26c | 150.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes | 67c | 149.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed Yes | 59c | 119.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab4…4c19backed Yes | 66c | 102.48$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ce…9743backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…db98backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Yes | 70c | 97.79$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed Yes | 77c | 96.84$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 91.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2b…70ebbacked Yes | 50c | 85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f9…eb40backed Yes | 60c | 83.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a70…6ac0backed No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…f74dbacked Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ce…abb6backed Yes | 75c | 62.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f4…2c55backed Yes | 60c | 60.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 35c | 60.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc28a…ac64backed Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 37c | 58.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe348…ef84backed No | 43c | 55.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5260…fd71backed Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…f634backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 68c | 45.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…2ac7backed No | 28c | 45.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 45c | 44.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x421d…320abacked No | 51c | 42.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 41c | 41.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b36…b940backed Yes | 54c | 38.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked No | 45c | 34.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e6…319dbacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2a…eee1backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe60…6eadbacked Yes | 64c | 31.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…4f9dbacked Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…2449backed Yes | 65c | 22.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b76…a2f2backed Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…d3fabacked Yes | 74c | 21.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +261.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4d…2173backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…a9bebacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x195b…f993backed Yes | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Yes | 72c | 19.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?No won
- Will Anish Giri win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?No won
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?No won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?No won
- Will Ivan Saric win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?No won
- Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?No won
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?No won
- Will R Praggnanandhaa win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?No won
- Will Wesley So win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.