Chess · resolved market
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4473ea77969ed42873091f9b525655e6d6a484d5545549400c93b5c0077f9456
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,878$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.68 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,287$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 927.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed Yes | 4c | 734.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 10c | 606.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes | 16c | 557.19$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…980bbacked Yes | 10c | 504.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes | 3c | 441.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x571b…4f25backed Yes | 12c | 400.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c4…4c8bbacked Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?No won
- Will Anish Giri win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?No won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?No won
- Will Ivan Saric win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?No won
- Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?Yes won
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?No won
- Will R Praggnanandhaa win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?No won
- Will Wesley So win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.