TailMyPicks
Market

Chess · resolved market

Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,040
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,105

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,040 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes8c2,358$200 inLost-$200.011414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-80.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x283b…cb9fbacked Yes13c1,365$175 inLost-$175.45425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x155c…1b09backed Yes2c1,111$24 inLost-$24.441323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-59.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed Yes15c752.04$116 inLost-$115.85232.7%17 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c711.87$62 inLost-$61.671757.4%13 W · 162 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-42.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb438…b113backed Yes9c546.01$50 inLost-$50.05650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes11c533.78$59 inLost-$58.647441.9%31 W · 43 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed95…b1e6backed Yes11c477.62$54 inLost-$54.45812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick37cpaid-71.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a07…05c1backed Yes7c446.31$33 inLost-$33.35616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-73.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes11c400$45 inLost-$45.125223.1%12 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x880c…440abacked Yes4c330.25$13 inLost-$12.9311539.1%45 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2b…2030backed Yes9c310$27 inLost-$26.73138.7%12 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+26.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6727…2ac7backed Yes7c250$19 inLost-$18.53212.5%4 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes15c200$30 inLost-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5260…fd71backed Yes9c173.38$15 inLost-$14.83933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ce…9743backed Yes9c140$12 inLost-$11.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes9c136.04$13 inLost-$12.713414.7%5 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-53.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc62f…f330backed Yes11c103.35$11 inLost-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.