Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca3d9586be6e6f86e87531b6b919ec79ec387905cc412eca1078841581adc3ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69bf…1737backed Yes | 0c | 7,318$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 4,787$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fce…b30dbacked Yes | 52c | 4,465$2,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,336.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f80…7be8backed Yes | 59c | 4,057$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b9…2d92backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…6943backed Yes | 18c | 2,823$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 37c | 2,274$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,436.67 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 1c | 2,225$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed Yes | 51c | 2,079$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…552ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,706$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…7752backed Yes | 7c | 1,653$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.13 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 1,576$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.22 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 54c | 1,428$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.64 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 69c | 1,391$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.33 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,301$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.17 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…3f94backed Yes | 4c | 1,085$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 23c | 1,042$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.33 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 899.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 839.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 35c | 703.7$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.6 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 47c | 696.73$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.85 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 53c | 636.04$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.66 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 5c | 634.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 7c | 633.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc70d…a6f9backed Yes | 35c | 628.29$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.76 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f4…d7eebacked No | 36c | 627.99$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 38c | 623.04$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.67 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba97…e8d4backed Yes | 15c | 603.52$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 600$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 44c | 568.43$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.41 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked No | 35c | 551.85$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.3 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…4d07backed Yes | 53c | 543.52$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.39 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 532.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ce…7414backed No | 28c | 532.03$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 21c | 510.02$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.42 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x487b…f382backed Yes | 60c | 482.91$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.65 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4b10…e48fbacked Yes | 77c | 468.01$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 389.23$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.06 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb842…9ee1backed Yes | 54c | 369.32$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked Yes | 33c | 362.83$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.09 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…205abacked No | 49c | 348.21$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.21 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x690c…92acbacked No | 29c | 343.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 53c | 339.21$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.82 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcead…ded7backed Yes | 14c | 330.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5793…a3e5backed Yes | 26c | 330$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fe…6e71backed Yes | 63c | 315$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…5f18backed Yes | 74c | 300$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd73d…e07abacked Yes | 70c | 299.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -55%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…0007backed No | 60c | 297.52$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.41 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe19c…0b8dbacked Yes | 79c | 296.74$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.94 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 51c | 293.29$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.53 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 11c | 292.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.8 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 40c | 291.54$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.38 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0698…f284backed No | 59c | 287.72$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7e…5ed7backed Yes | 20c | 283.75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc347…97bdbacked Yes | 73c | 274.08$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2415…a7c0backed No | 37c | 269.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +169.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…8fbbbacked No | 57c | 260.63$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.47 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9eec…d303backed Yes | 25c | 253.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 36c | 227.05$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.6 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…28a0backed Yes | 40c | 222.4$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked No | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed No | 40c | 199.66$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.52 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b7…9a6cbacked No | 58c | 195.73$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 15c | 193.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac1…75bdbacked Yes | 6c | 192.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 52c | 192.15$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d02…a689backed Yes | 63c | 189.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x675a…0551backed Yes | 44c | 185.06$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Yes | 29c | 168.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…60e3backed Yes | 58c | 168.13$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b6…f8d1backed Yes | 8c | 158.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2092…28c6backed Yes | 72c | 157.05$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9622…01efbacked Yes | 59c | 155.22$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149f…d306backed No | 55c | 152$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.73 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…1212backed No | 77c | 150.05$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 149.33$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8895…af26backed No | 34c | 148.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5d…e3f4backed Yes | 71c | 141.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 63c | 139.26$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.86 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8040…73cebacked Yes | 72c | 139.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 73c | 138.74$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…d419backed No | 73c | 137.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 61cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x193d…ca4fbacked No | 75c | 133.19$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a37…1f82backed Yes | 20c | 122.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa545…7e73backed No | 69c | 118.62$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 60c | 115.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04b…ff0ebacked Yes | 33c | 114.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…2c9ebacked No | 70c | 106.12$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 59c | 104.04$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604f…c615backed Yes | 58c | 103.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d82…ed61backed No | 50c | 100.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe474…1508backed No | 60c | 100.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…c12bbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +7.3wins | +0.26per pick | 10cpaid | +359.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4672…954bbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…6a5ebacked No | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a6…409cbacked No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 98.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.