Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64bd4fb1eef5ec8d4e8f6ed219df12304cf56087f1a191852f9f7af7ccfc140a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f98…eb9ebacked Yes | 27c | 6,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…995cbacked No | 73c | 6,000$4,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 2,720$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…97b7backed Yes | 15c | 719.4$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 15c | 670.94$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 7c | 661.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…986bbacked Yes | 20c | 574.3$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…c5a4backed No | 77c | 572.75$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.75 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfded…8379backed Yes | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11c4…c6cfbacked No | 56c | 500$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…96f4backed No | 67c | 408.29$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c4…83bdbacked No | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 392.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19b…a105backed No | 71c | 342.06$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d4…eb10backed No | 79c | 310.51$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.01 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 308.02$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 216$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10c1…df6fbacked Yes | 12c | 212.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 5c | 210$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 202.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…46d6backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…76adbacked Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 193.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 77c | 186$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 25c | 182.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 25c | 179.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…de9abacked Yes | 28c | 173.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 29c | 167.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked Yes | 28c | 166.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d54…66a1backed Yes | 29c | 159$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc6…ac13backed No | 72c | 155.56$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1518…39cabacked No | 75c | 148.43$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ef…9ff4backed No | 74c | 143$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 29c | 138.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked No | 73c | 136.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cd…e98dbacked No | 74c | 133.77$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6696…b1c4backed Yes | 32c | 130.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked Yes | 23c | 130$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d82…ed61backed Yes | 26c | 117.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 20c | 110.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 22c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…0dc2backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…d766backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…8449backed Yes | 21c | 93.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…77b0backed Yes | 24c | 82.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14aa…ae2bbacked No | 62c | 80.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x385c…a385backed No | 65c | 76.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x031f…77f1backed No | 74c | 74.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 24c | 71.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 91 | 25.3%23 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 66.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 19c | 66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fac…3e5abacked No | 76c | 65.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d27…61aabacked Yes | 31c | 64.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 34c | 62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d22…d039backed Yes | 28c | 58.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…7b19backed Yes | 29c | 52.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 29c | 47.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 21c | 47.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | -12.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…1320backed Yes | 32c | 46.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 43.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0202…55b0backed No | 73c | 41.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf94f…3472backed No | 62c | 40.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa003…72d0backed Yes | 26c | 39.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…fd36backed No | 69c | 36.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1191…dfa6backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084d…2f47backed No | 67c | 19.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbb…1d69backed No | 75c | 18.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb3…76acbacked No | 72c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.