Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68534b2e1e9b78f9b4d82551feb72f12407c1bf49d8350314b3c408b596c84b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed No | 3c | 2,954$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.28 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 4c | 2,744$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.37 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…6943backed Yes | 69c | 1,980$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a0…050cbacked No | 1c | 1,866$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…394fbacked No | 72c | 1,842$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.36 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -56%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 25c | 1,739$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.49 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d2…d130backed No | 2c | 1,666$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,579$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…d52abacked No | 1c | 1,448$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed Yes | 41c | 1,353$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.86 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 2c | 1,334$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked Yes | 40c | 1,226$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.24 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,180$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.39 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked No | 58c | 1,172$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.53 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +74%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 40c | 1,108$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.8 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…0cbcbacked Yes | 40c | 1,093$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…b461backed No | 61c | 1,034$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.59 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…e109backed No | 61c | 1,022$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93c0…b919backed No | 62c | 1,022$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,015$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.74 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…fe28backed No | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09be…76d5backed Yes | 38c | 976$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed No | 2c | 957.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 3c | 934.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed Yes | 38c | 870$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.4 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 30c | 821.49$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.44 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 38c | 819$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.78 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…1bb5backed No | 62c | 768$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked No | 59c | 760$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.4 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece6…7d8abacked No | 71c | 699.53$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked No | 62c | 682$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 3c | 666$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 3c | 665.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 10cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…f199backed Yes | 42c | 663$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.54 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…0c79backed No | 59c | 653$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa457…1a93backed Yes | 38c | 640$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…88adbacked Yes | 38c | 629$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.98 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed Yes | 38c | 625$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…f4d1backed No | 62c | 622$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…b332backed No | 61c | 620$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 41c | 587$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.33 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 2c | 583.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…a54dbacked Yes | 38c | 574$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed No | 60c | 569$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.4 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked No | 62c | 555$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.1 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.34per pick | 47cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed Yes | 40c | 548$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…7752backed Yes | 26c | 542.52$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.75 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 59c | 542$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.78 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed No | 60c | 530$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…1ab3backed No | 46c | 523.13$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…9bc5backed No | 62c | 498$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.76 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed No | 56c | 487$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.72 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…0430backed No | 62c | 478$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.36 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes | 41c | 475$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked Yes | 40c | 474$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.4 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes | 38c | 456.47$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cb…ac3dbacked Yes | 40c | 442$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked No | 60c | 442$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe513…b842backed No | 58c | 441$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.78 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4e…6533backed No | 60c | 414$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…d4f7backed No | 60c | 406$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…13ccbacked Yes | 40c | 397$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed Yes | 40c | 374$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked Yes | 41c | 365$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.35 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed No | 60c | 363$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.8 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8df5…e945backed Yes | 24c | 362.63$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.38 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…bab6backed No | 62c | 356$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.72 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed Yes | 41c | 353$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.66 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…7154backed No | 60c | 351$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…09a7backed No | 59c | 349$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.91 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3482…97bfbacked No | 71c | 347.52$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed Yes | 40c | 340$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 62c | 314$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.68 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 17c | 305.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…6b99backed No | 60c | 285$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x487b…f382backed Yes | 35c | 284.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.23 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0698…f284backed Yes | 36c | 280.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0c…ec71backed No | 64c | 278.19$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…2648backed No | 58c | 277$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.66 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked No | 4c | 276.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed No | 62c | 262$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.44 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed No | 62c | 259$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 78c | 244.59$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…d166backed Yes | 38c | 241$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.42 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 76c | 240.99$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.4 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Yes | 38c | 236$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.32 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 42c | 232$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.56 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes | 38c | 232$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.84 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe901…6c86backed No | 72c | 218.52$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…81a5backed Yes | 38c | 216$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.92 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…8919backed Yes | 38c | 213$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.06 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 22c | 199.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.49 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7dd…bc48backed No | 75c | 198.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60a7…6d60backed Yes | 55c | 198.84$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.02 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…f3dcbacked Yes | 41c | 195.31$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.23 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed No | 60c | 195$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 59c | 189$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.51 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 23c | 188.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.