TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Pistons

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wizardsof Wizards, Pistons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,430,796
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,155,753

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,430,796 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 865 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x27cb…169ebacked Wizards13c407,629$51,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355,904.9427424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Pistons9c192,912$17,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,956.213442.5%57 W · 77 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Wizards10c101,727$10,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91,554.1848343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c28…9e49backed Pistons40c95,882$38,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,404.91942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Wizards12c77,409$9,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,119.9230845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Wizards10c57,764$5,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,987.6323257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Pistons58c57,005$33,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,053.111,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Wizards28c49,732$13,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,857.34,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Wizards38c46,110$17,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,583.381,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea32…8870backed Wizards12c35,215$4,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,989.24744.7%21 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e62…ef0fbacked Pistons37c33,960$12,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,619.091346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e5f…db04backed Pistons41c32,637$13,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,513.043056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Wizards10c30,240$3,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,21628649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards42c28,857$12,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,702.83,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Wizards10c25,786$2,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,092.814,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Pistons0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Pistons61c20,803$12,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,769.8137557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf691…ef99backed Pistons80c20,675$16,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,508.96366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Wizards10c20,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,00014434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Wizards11c20,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,8004447.7%21 W · 23 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+34.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Wizards10c19,932$2,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,872.328543.5%37 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Wizards14c19,484$2,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,777.328742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Pistons45c18,489$8,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,281.2689444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Wizards19c18,015$3,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,524.92,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Wizards11c18,000$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,02054539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a0a…24a9backed Wizards13c17,243$2,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,924.091233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+43.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Pistons35c16,527$5,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,707.121,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Wizards11c16,215$1,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,506.154,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Wizards13c15,000$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,049.8761851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Wizards11c14,690$1,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,074.128643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Wizards14c13,815$1,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,885.821,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Wizards70c13,446$9,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,019.2681529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbab7…bc7cbacked Wizards14c13,000$1,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,1809054.4%49 W · 41 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Wizards12c12,800$1,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,2641,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32dc…2265backed Pistons3c12,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Pistons3c11,326$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.7848347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Wizards16c11,006$1,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,214.425146.2%116 W · 135 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Pistons40c11,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,399.9817348.6%84 W · 89 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Wizards24c10,872$2,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,220.7348845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Pistons29c10,500$3,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,072.7218536.8%68 W · 117 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Wizards14c10,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,60046928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe12a…67efbacked Wizards12c10,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,80015841.1%65 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Pistons50c9,720$4,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8869336.6%34 W · 59 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Wizards12c9,618$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,432.3561336.1%221 W · 392 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Pistons53c9,536$5,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,098.7625945.6%118 W · 141 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Pistons75c9,336$7,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,002.229938.4%38 W · 61 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe3c3…ac62backed Wizards75c8,940$6,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,206.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Pistons62c8,867$5,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,49310158.4%59 W · 42 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdab7…24ecbacked Wizards73c8,812$6,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,385.616065%104 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead3…9446backed Pistons0c8,600$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.24139%16 W · 25 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc96c…0fb2backed Pistons73c8,522$6,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,213.331241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Pistons48c8,338$4,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,011.6883039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Wizards10c8,325$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,498.773,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x58ec…66f9backed Wizards12c8,076$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,106.881650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Wizards22c8,052$1,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,273.5536247.2%171 W · 191 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c28…7ba5backed Wizards14c8,001$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,880.8613148.9%64 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9575…e916backed Wizards14c8,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,8801833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Pistons78c7,767$6,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,074.278961.8%55 W · 34 L+0.4wins0.00per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa243…6080backed Pistons44c7,619$3,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,366.62343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Wizards77c7,381$5,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.377869.2%54 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa051…54ebbacked Wizards14c7,143$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,142.8615435.7%55 W · 99 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Wizards10c7,140$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,425.6871547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07c8…e891backed Wizards12c6,902$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,073.51735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid+19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Wizards44c6,785$2,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,825.9538540.3%155 W · 230 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b69…a9f2backed Pistons39c6,776$2,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,632.963452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Wizards45c6,658$3,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,629.8313435.8%48 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x920d…38adbacked Pistons67c6,636$4,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,445.629849%48 W · 50 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd60f…b6c4backed Wizards39c6,530$2,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,990.164151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d4d…3a35backed Wizards14c6,500$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,590757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+136.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a0c…3f90backed Wizards77c6,464$5,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,460.625438.9%21 W · 33 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaccc…b5e2backed Wizards20c6,261$1,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,015.35425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid+25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Pistons39c6,146$2,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,409.2756646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Wizards11c6,078$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,409.5472450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Wizards11c5,962$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,306.1816039.4%63 W · 97 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3260…c210backed Wizards12c5,700$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,016955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid+54%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Wizards49c5,684$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,884.1316848.2%81 W · 87 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Wizards47c5,608$2,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,982.2250838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Pistons0c5,514$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.538820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d2…796ebacked Pistons75c5,445$4,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,102.599250%46 W · 46 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5077…4e7cbacked Wizards13c5,386$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,711.529733%32 W · 65 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Wizards15c5,349$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,569.4138046.6%177 W · 203 L-1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7b5f…1c63backed Wizards38c5,271$2,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,252.69580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+59.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Wizards77c5,137$3,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.4215247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc869…8a6ebacked Pistons69c5,076$3,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,483.3112951.9%67 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Wizards46c5,023$2,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,720.198,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb123…0a15backed Wizards11c5,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,4509944.4%44 W · 55 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Pistons51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,549.9914243%61 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed Wizards17c4,900$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,052.3633632.4%109 W · 227 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Wizards48c4,896$2,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,541.373,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Pistons75c4,698$3,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,501.861,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Wizards25c4,572$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,446.1385344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Pistons37c4,444$1,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,654.1548956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Pistons80c4,428$3,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,538.439857.1%56 W · 42 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Pistons47c4,284$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,994.8624048.3%116 W · 124 L-13.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7203…22d6backed Pistons77c4,179$3,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,217.489843.9%43 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Wizards12c4,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,52033945.1%153 W · 186 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb917…02c6backed Wizards13c4,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,48017940.2%72 W · 107 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb40f…a5b1backed Wizards12c3,887$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,420.741323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe458…3436backed Wizards39c3,739$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,288.561546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pistons56c3,668$2,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,045.551,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.