TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$374,872
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$369,847

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $374,872 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 448 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd946…ccf7backed Yes1c19,872$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3650%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8138…3c88backed No17c10,123$1,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,383.651050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed No12c8,930$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,858.684751.1%24 W · 23 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+29.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xecc4…7a2abacked No49c8,827$4,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,498.632466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+23.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdfc9…7552backed No28c7,660$2,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,512.412360.9%14 W · 9 L+4.6wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+43.1%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xd34f…b81abacked No59c6,697$3,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,733.69580%4 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.41per pick39cpaid+122.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x91e1…5aecbacked Yes14c5,915$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.161637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Yes58c5,865$3,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,407.386836.8%25 W · 43 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe955…3b03backed Yes49c5,404$2,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,651.234238.1%16 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56bd…e58dbacked Yes66c5,113$3,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,395.22536%9 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8944…41d5backed No15c4,497$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,805.472532%8 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick23cpaid-9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd30…b342backed Yes0c4,400$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes40c4,196$1,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,697.6710521.9%23 W · 82 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-44.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c42…deb7backed No23c4,000$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,077.642429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5b4…3a74backed No22c4,000$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1201100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e76…53f1backed Yes76c4,000$3,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,04010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa1…c691backed No10c4,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,599.984050%20 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+37.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf1b2…a321backed No22c3,852$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,014.061741.2%7 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick29cpaid-2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdcd5…aa9ebacked Yes41c3,640$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.41050%5 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+29.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x841f…806bbacked Yes16c3,316$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.583636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57e4…835ebacked No33c3,200$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1367759.7%46 W · 31 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed Yes75c3,011$2,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,258.2319543.1%84 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed Yes53c3,000$1,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,57810763.6%68 W · 39 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd7ee…9597backed No26c2,684$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,990.8116247.5%77 W · 85 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbace…3429backed No16c2,618$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,195.162157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ce5…9298backed Yes69c2,557$1,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,765.53333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.42per pick75cpaid-57.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd71…559fbacked No23c2,500$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9251100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfbc…167cbacked Yes48c2,413$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.31145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes9c2,294$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.466314.3%9 W · 54 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945e…f061backed Yes70c2,200$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,540250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3df7…f332backed No18c2,137$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,761.365352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf72…af1abacked Yes15c2,119$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.76650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+28.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa70…8fbebacked No24c2,100$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,596.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed No51c2,000$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.369352.7%49 W · 44 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked No59c2,000$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8203262.5%20 W · 12 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1bbe…776dbacked No13c1,997$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,737.68147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-45.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd2d…84e6backed No18c1,900$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5497240.3%29 W · 43 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaf34…f0ccbacked No24c1,900$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4441100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x189e…64c3backed No15c1,891$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,605.793318.2%6 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xebfd…dd70backed No60c1,843$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.692429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca53…d319backed Yes73c1,796$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,313.3633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-54.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes34c1,724$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.7125422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a97…593dbacked Yes72c1,718$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,240.258728.7%25 W · 62 L-14.9wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-55.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x0c55…9e26backed Yes75c1,667$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.554641.3%19 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No21c1,648$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,300.512810.7%3 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-69.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6305…9d0bbacked No12c1,603$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403.495339.6%21 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+35.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbf1b…5f4cbacked Yes38c1,589$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.32560%15 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes6c1,578$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.822333.4%8 W · 225 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-64.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeabd…3a01backed No23c1,563$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,204.813522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-37.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2f62backed No9c1,536$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,397.63771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.40per pick31cpaid+215.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked No57c1,500$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6457545.3%34 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77e4…d18fbacked No7c1,500$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3955736.8%21 W · 36 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75cb…e79abacked No23c1,500$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1551100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d4d…b3f4backed No7c1,489$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,385.177047.1%33 W · 37 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+61.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xda4c…2fecbacked Yes57c1,476$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.71450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2229…6bf8backed No42c1,421$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.163863.2%24 W · 14 L+10.5wins+0.28per pick35cpaid+90.8%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x42c4…93a7backed Yes16c1,400$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2306127.9%17 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9f9…c5e8backed No24c1,361$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.076063.3%38 W · 22 L+17.9wins+0.30per pick34cpaid+108.3%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0xd649…6bffbacked Yes20c1,352$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.06933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+26.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61d7…01f0backed Yes77c1,300$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0052138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c1,300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141424.2%6 W · 136 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc903…b175backed No30c1,234$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.953857.9%22 W · 16 L+5.3wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+46.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe4e6…4bd4backed No31c1,170$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.248854.5%48 W · 40 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No38c1,170$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.658344.6%37 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a47…740bbacked No9c1,145$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.862853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+50.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed No29c1,118$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.2415362.7%96 W · 57 L+22.4wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xd6c1…51aabacked No9c1,111$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.111241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+59.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No49c1,070$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.9717948%86 W · 93 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No32c1,053$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.661225%3 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6452…30a1backed No27c1,045$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.756350.8%32 W · 31 L+12.0wins+0.19per pick32cpaid+108.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked No24c1,029$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.6614141.8%59 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbca6…73e3backed No23c1,028$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.948327.7%23 W · 60 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2090…2246backed No33c1,004$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.09742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d5…f4ddbacked Yes50c986.65$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68d7…1c0bbacked No51c979.15$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.42633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d85…e6f6backed No11c900$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8011553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+40.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ea…0751backed No30c875.97$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.953324.2%8 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-45.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked No58c864.89$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.894831.3%15 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-47.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3060…54babacked Yes12c846.73$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1560%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0aa3…3044backed No60c833.33$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.335431.5%17 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed Yes68c831.29$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.2820551.2%105 W · 100 L+13.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No33c812.4$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.5635712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe730…e424backed No27c800$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5846934.8%24 W · 45 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked No7c799.93$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.9413131.3%41 W · 90 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+164.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6e3a…0490backed Yes13c795.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d4…9c9abacked Yes26c791.38$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.52812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-65.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04fd…90d5backed Yes38c778.14$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.35425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-65.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xabbe…8f37backed No58c775.86$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.863256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9e1…e5e1backed Yes69c775.32$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2471…6464backed No42c769.42$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.42650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed No32c766.19$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.485633.9%19 W · 37 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd71f…acd9backed Yes44c763.65$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.621526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-40.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb2a6…9018backed Yes78c700$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a84…c26fbacked No14c674.21$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.462528%7 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa83…537bbacked Yes77c666.08$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.883060%18 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xde30…36a8backed Yes56c646.77$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0f…4ed4backed Yes78c641.49$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-66.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7205…ffd4backed No55c632.57$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.097431.1%23 W · 51 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No38c606.86$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.5813054.6%71 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe25…8150backed Yes22c606.51$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.431526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-34.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.