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Token Launches · resolved market

Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$905,444
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$936,016

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $905,444 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 409 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd8f3…080fbacked Yes9c72,973$6,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,784.58120%0 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes4c35,748$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,252.310521.9%23 W · 82 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-44.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9689…2c75backed Yes6c26,474$1,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,52530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa77f…e578backed Yes49c23,289$11,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,520.543129%9 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-46.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes6c22,608$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.86314.3%9 W · 54 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e5…0e18backed Yes3c20,673$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.2742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78c6…4710backed No61c18,137$11,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,985.67560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7217…fdbdbacked Yes8c17,157$1,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,340.5160%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf60a…dd9bbacked Yes8c13,323$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc903…b175backed Yes40c12,904$5,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,106.833857.9%22 W · 16 L+5.3wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+46.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4930…82abbacked Yes11c12,819$1,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,441.33828.9%11 W · 27 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No46c12,520$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,720.3217859.6%106 W · 72 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes5c12,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6204816.7%8 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72a1…1616backed Yes40c11,506$4,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,615.6550%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1249…6fd4backed Yes5c10,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x780e…e99cbacked No70c9,975$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,975.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf561…ba3bbacked Yes8c9,766$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.141241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-38.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes26c8,686$2,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,242.32810.7%3 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-69.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb2b…1921backed No43c8,551$3,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,883.735058%29 W · 21 L+7.9wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+43.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x3344…9175backed Yes4c7,348$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2048…f572backed No69c7,221$4,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,266.839046.7%42 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fcd…8dd0backed Yes12c6,850$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.68520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-75%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x841f…806bbacked Yes13c6,100$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.913636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed No76c5,478$4,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,307.2619543.1%84 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c5,390$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.363283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda2b…c006backed Yes59c5,364$3,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,155.731338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd008…135dbacked Yes40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b1e…65a5backed Yes40c4,849$1,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,931.3560%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc76…7842backed Yes46c4,603$2,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,134.75135.3%18 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2387…2736backed Yes11c4,514$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9a6…2833backed Yes30c4,474$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355.18728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-60.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91a8…b42ebacked No61c4,466$2,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,745.8633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+55.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes12c4,311$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.2612840.6%52 W · 76 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Yes3c4,000$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.496836.8%25 W · 43 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9f9…c5e8backed No50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0006063.3%38 W · 22 L+17.9wins+0.30per pick34cpaid+108.3%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes5c3,988$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.241234.1%5 W · 118 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdef0…3d06backed Yes61c3,839$2,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,323.632420.8%5 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-67.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes5c3,583$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1661343.7%5 W · 129 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes5c3,580$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.481243.2%4 W · 120 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes6c3,500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.32442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a24…4a1fbacked No59c3,403$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403.651258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes6c3,270$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.692541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c36…c1efbacked No58c3,100$1,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No52c3,009$1,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,434.3514732%47 W · 100 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7248…8cb4backed No70c2,888$2,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.335238.5%20 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20b1…49fabacked Yes42c2,883$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,21020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33b5…0490backed Yes6c2,711$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.3450%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes4c2,700$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1181424.2%6 W · 136 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a6e…a185backed Yes5c2,562$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3a2…bf10backed Yes30c2,523$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0ec…d73cbacked Yes41c2,500$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes6c2,477$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.821190.8%1 W · 118 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-85.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a47…740bbacked No75c2,308$1,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.582853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+50.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd72…b6c6backed Yes28c2,125$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5953933.3%13 W · 26 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-38.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes7c2,084$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.281122.7%3 W · 109 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x029e…0159backed Yes24c2,081$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked No75c2,000$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.587545.3%34 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c67…68f5backed Yes6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xade1…950abacked Yes4c2,000$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f93…ea49backed Yes20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bbe…776dbacked Yes2c2,000$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-45.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d7b…2a7cbacked Yes4c2,000$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc60…85c9backed No45c2,000$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.983268.8%22 W · 10 L+7.3wins+0.23per pick46cpaid+96.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x50ac…a924backed No70c1,999$1,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.82425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-64.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes24c1,931$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.0415941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3662…e7a4backed Yes17c1,876$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefae…40a5backed Yes20c1,812$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.71425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2867…3a8dbacked Yes36c1,798$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.06333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60d1…0c8fbacked No76c1,770$1,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.5615539.4%61 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c77…f1d6backed Yes4c1,746$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652128.6%6 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick16cpaid+42.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe58f…b1adbacked Yes27c1,720$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.4520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-70.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes15c1,663$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.137021.4%15 W · 55 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-44.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf4df…0267backed Yes2c1,600$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2f62backed No70c1,599$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.66771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.40per pick31cpaid+215.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,571$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.067663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11e9…4136backed No77c1,547$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.398630.2%26 W · 60 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x647e…5a92backed Yes33c1,500$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d65…7d4abacked No45c1,345$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.793834.2%13 W · 25 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f24…c911backed No44c1,294$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.255240.4%21 W · 31 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9371…9943backed Yes9c1,280$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.17425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c89…6d01backed No59c1,205$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.56771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+82.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6641…99f9backed Yes3c1,200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb045…d8bcbacked Yes48c1,200$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.993327.3%9 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-41.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa488…4a49backed No59c1,178$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.324065%26 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+11%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb960…b8a1backed No43c1,158$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.541952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+2.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes4c1,157$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.09254%1 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-93.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9262…bcb8backed No46c1,117$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.411957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+142%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd265…82afbacked No60c1,090$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4364450%22 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1199…7a6abacked No47c1,075$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.68944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76f8…e996backed Yes20c1,027$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.031442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+70%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x871e…6566backed No50c1,000$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.21758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+38.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc82f…460dbacked Yes30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5dd…bcd9backed Yes4c1,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x296b…dcd9backed Yes4c1,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a9a…6924backed No58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4202653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3476…3953backed Yes12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe182…b624backed Yes13c999.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13011225.9%29 W · 83 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bb7…dad6backed No69c999.99$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3104729.8%14 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7361…7be5backed Yes9c990$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.82416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.