Token Launches · resolved market
Zama FDV above $4B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85efd016a90b2b89d774de0e97efe8d8a72e08f0f7f1920ab807c992ac9c2409
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $599,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $691,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $599,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8f3…080fbacked Yes | 1c | 266,020$3,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,949.14 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb77…023ebacked Yes | 1c | 12,158$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,142$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 0c | 8,871$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -90%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 7,316$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.67 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,932$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | -20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 4,903$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.14 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 2c | 4,539$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 4,171$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d50…b166backed Yes | 0c | 3,250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,886$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 2,858$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc1…8070backed Yes | 0c | 2,696$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 2,572$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 2,428$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 1c | 2,428$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 1c | 2,296$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1e…65a5backed Yes | 24c | 1,718$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,677$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4930…82abbacked Yes | 1c | 1,622$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,429$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +146.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd946…ccf7backed Yes | 5c | 1,377$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,271$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 75 | 4%3 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab6f…233cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,148$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf703…545abacked Yes | 5c | 1,094$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 1c | 1,090$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4368…de39backed Yes | 1c | 1,020$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffb4…6a58backed Yes | 2c | 962.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 63c | 894.11$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.23 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc893…9094backed Yes | 6c | 762$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 2c | 752.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 750.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…1806backed Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 6c | 275.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…f89dbacked Yes | 7c | 213.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 9c | 176$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 145$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 9c | 141$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed Yes | 9c | 126$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…2676backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c56…6d26backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Zama FDV above $4B one day after launch?this page
- Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Zama FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Zama FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Zama FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.