TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 46m and 50m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$199,734

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,734 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes7c46,313$3,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,438.71128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-70.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc90d…c9d2backed Yes11c21,500$2,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,36510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes38c13,934$5,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,231.8926041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb413…1cb7backed Yes15c9,621$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.934211.9%5 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed Yes20c7,809$1,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,581.723639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes6c7,763$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.5832814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1920…a04ebacked Yes3c6,698$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.7612631%39 W · 87 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-40.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes2c4,584$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11013820.3%28 W · 110 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4155…35cebacked No46c3,210$1,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,727.222441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed No73c3,095$2,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.4729423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes53c2,707$1,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,440.544114.6%6 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8296…e9cbbacked Yes42c2,507$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.253116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes22c2,446$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.3829735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9feb…ac7abacked Yes58c1,736$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.6420%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes35c1,729$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.0613735%48 W · 89 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes15c1,478$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.8623321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes19c1,475$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.0328524.2%69 W · 216 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x241f…e15abacked Yes4c1,335$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.85333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No75c1,307$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.7116741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No77c1,281$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.558752.9%46 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes19c1,156$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.645311.3%6 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No68c1,100$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.32475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x776f…e259backed Yes10c1,050$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes18c1,039$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.82119.5%20 W · 191 L-0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes37c1,007$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.7126431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes60c992$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.1515149%74 W · 77 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes47c934.31$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43919532.8%64 W · 131 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2aa…586fbacked Yes24c900$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcffe…146dbacked Yes44c897.82$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.0912936.4%47 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No53c894.88$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.464233.3%14 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a70…cba6backed Yes20c879.29$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.353633.3%12 W · 24 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-46.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Yes37c859.99$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes49c807.87$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.9618746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x35aa…ba97backed Yes11c655.61$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.893613.9%5 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-55.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes11c631.29$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5116453.7%88 W · 76 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes11c628.35$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.432821.4%6 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-57%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa46a…9763backed Yes39c620.06$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.73850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe12b…ee78backed Yes5c600.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8907…a996backed No67c600$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2002100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6395…6735backed Yes60c593.79$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.962556%14 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f7a…b395backed Yes50c587.49$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.091741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-35.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe84b…7212backed Yes9c550$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c77…5251backed Yes21c537.75$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb10b…ec5ebacked Yes46c507.58$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.93716.2%6 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-58%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15fb…252dbacked Yes51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.613440.3%54 W · 80 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cc6…02ddbacked Yes19c500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954734%16 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes5c447.92$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid-21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9349…0486backed Yes58c447.47$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd08…bd74backed Yes18c422$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.961250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e28…cf34backed Yes46c386.2$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.14333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed Yes16c385.11$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes26c383.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.79434%32 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked Yes13c375.44$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.744847.9%23 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x628b…6861backed Yes41c370.88$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa616…b8ffbacked Yes32c361.12$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88d2…2421backed Yes29c350.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0327…5e15backed Yes9c350$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.51546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+41.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a19…8f5bbacked Yes9c350$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.09728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-52%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88c4…758bbacked Yes18c343$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.742343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xceca…3f67backed No70c313.75$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.38450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes44c299.99$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.2828528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No37c299.63$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.76127.9%17 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x59e4…c67bbacked Yes16c278.57$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.366330.2%19 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed Yes42c270.3$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.174742.6%20 W · 27 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x96ac…2c21backed Yes33c255.73$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2702…7b89backed Yes37c254.69$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.09837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes33c254.59$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.133517.1%6 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-41%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb70b…6087backed Yes16c246.8$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3911633.6%39 W · 77 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No73c241.57$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.183138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes17c238.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.731315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc7c…4ce2backed Yes64c232.76$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7d…1c5bbacked Yes41c217.16$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.141361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+28.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2482…67b1backed Yes8c200.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.629034.4%31 W · 59 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-12.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes53c190.44$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.92722.2%6 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-39.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa575…f2d0backed Yes40c181.01$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.911118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick41cpaid-73.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes8c175.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-51.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes30c168.19$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.951656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes35c162.51$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8616015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xeeb9…6f7abacked No49c150$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ea9…6d52backed Yes10c149.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.982128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-53.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x714e…beeebacked Yes57c141.96$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.842846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3af…f4f8backed Yes49c141.47$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc205…eec2backed Yes10c140$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142055%11 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes38c136.64$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8917540%70 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes30c129.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5514337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b4e…e44abacked Yes18c129.15$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-55.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9022…db5bbacked Yes42c121.56$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.512055%11 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No60c111.7$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9219240.6%78 W · 114 L-20.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes63c109.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.29933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea1d…e993backed No80c107.58$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5779…168dbacked Yes20c106.44$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.061540%6 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…2cbabacked Yes58c102.12$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked No62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf67f…46b5backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b69…42cfbacked Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ca…960bbacked Yes66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c22…444cbacked Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-41.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37fc…7717backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102825%7 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes51c99.67$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.629226.1%24 W · 68 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.