TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 38m and 42m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$109,690

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,690 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes12c15,152$1,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,775.2317751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4155…35cebacked Yes25c14,136$3,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,485.822441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes1c9,196$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.2832814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed No65c4,822$3,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,685.4423639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes9c4,084$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.3729423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfed7…9b10backed Yes17c3,417$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.253330.3%10 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4da7…355ebacked Yes31c3,120$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.997538.7%29 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes32c2,343$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.499434%32 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes2c1,729$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5413735%48 W · 89 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c1,706$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.612109.5%20 W · 190 L-0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-49.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes23c1,452$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.542334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-41.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes1c1,447$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013820.3%28 W · 110 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes25c1,356$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.8623321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No72c1,303$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.8116453.7%88 W · 76 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes24c1,213$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.7428524.2%69 W · 216 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53a4…4447backed Yes39c1,186$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.6512451.6%64 W · 60 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes44c1,128$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004114.6%6 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes13c1,100$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14413440.3%54 W · 80 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6395…6735backed No68c1,000$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.642556%14 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes30c850$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.7717540%70 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No77c834.82$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.192821.4%6 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-57%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes23c714.49$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.6226431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes14c681.42$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.129735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes40c573.34$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.8618746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No66c510$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.222268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No62c491.13$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.5116741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No78c479.45$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.418752.9%46 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No68c450.05$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.2226041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes23c431.69$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9548414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No56c414.82$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.818332.5%27 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf933…52fbbacked Yes30c400$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.1512240.2%49 W · 73 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59e4…c67bbacked Yes26c399.99$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1046330.2%19 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e28…cf34backed Yes7c386.2$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No79c315$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.554233.3%14 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49f7…f566backed No78c300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.965572.7%40 W · 15 L+10.8wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+47.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes14c287.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.766127.9%17 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes42c278.88$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.925710.5%6 W · 51 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-54.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes19c255$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6113333.1%44 W · 89 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked No75c251$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.841553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes19c250$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.95128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-70.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed Yes23c250$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.517017.1%29 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa1…d4c8backed No75c250$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.52245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7604…cd66backed Yes40c237.38$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.871457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+30%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcffe…146dbacked No75c217.59$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.6712936.4%47 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes32c211.6$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.567020%14 W · 56 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes18c201.67$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.855123.5%12 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x159e…050ebacked Yes29c200$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.366630.3%20 W · 46 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes9c199.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x814a…ab7abacked No64c199.98$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.99837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-39.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes18c185.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.641315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe973…f8b1backed Yes16c182.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab6a…735abacked Yes16c152.91$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.47540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7234…4c92backed No78c150$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5825%2 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-63.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes34c112.91$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.392437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50a3…0a78backed Yes42c100.56$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.951662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x254c…7678backed No67c100.25$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.023360.6%20 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.957241.7%30 W · 42 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52bd…1a8abacked Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175837.9%22 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ea9…6d52backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.52128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-53.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes11c98.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5713534.8%47 W · 88 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd4e…c703backed Yes23c87.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb10b…ec5ebacked Yes38c80.46$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.623716.2%6 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-58%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad47…1d5abacked Yes13c80$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.42030%6 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes28c76.93$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5411825.4%30 W · 88 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbeca…e32abacked Yes26c75.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5548…9cc6backed Yes30c70$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick27cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes52c69.83$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.572254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c3c…4169backed Yes35c56.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.79922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-70.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Yes37c53.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.771711.8%2 W · 15 L-5.9wins-0.35per pick47cpaid-59.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xde29…f202backed Yes38c53.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x965f…50debacked Yes40c50.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+69.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58b…ef84backed Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes33c49.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5216015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xbdd4…0695backed Yes24c43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.18461.9%52 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb51…f32cbacked No64c38.44$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.684425%11 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-29.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x145d…9847backed No74c34.75$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefb7…3647backed No53c30.19$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.192343.5%10 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick34cpaid-3.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5c8…3652backed Yes38c29.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.111369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x233c…6fd0backed No74c28.41$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5564…cfc9backed No76c24.37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11c8…be84backed No74c22.82$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.045650%28 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f67…af63backed No76c21.5$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa575…f2d0backed No70c21.28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.471118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick41cpaid-73.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4169…98e9backed No80c17.6$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.572867.9%19 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x610d…6c37backed No80c16.85$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.372157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dc9…0b92backed No74c16.41$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.27683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick75cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba68…39d7backed No68c14.71$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.711163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa804…c45abacked No78c14.7$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.19250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.