Movies · resolved market
Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 38m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x257c7b4e1e9fb2bd1c5d4676f3423171b4c75f219499f24facf01236353991ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,494 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4155…35cebacked Yes | 7c | 9,896$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.73 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 5c | 6,504$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.67 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…9b10backed Yes | 10c | 3,679$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.9 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,402$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 4c | 2,055$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 1,734$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.43 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,645$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…fb62backed Yes | 6c | 1,270$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 1,172$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 779.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 723.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 8c | 655.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 6c | 564.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 5c | 561.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 3c | 504.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 9c | 499.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 6c | 326.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 5c | 302.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 6c | 283.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 7c | 260$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…6d52backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 109.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 38m?this page
- Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 38m and 42m?No won
- Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 42m and 46m?Yes won
- Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 46m and 50m?No won
- Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 54m?No won
- Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.