TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 42m and 46m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$262,036

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $262,036 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa6ea…b02abacked No1c75,959$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.46128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-70.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed Yes67c14,983$10,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,948.8923639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes58c9,249$5,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,903.9929735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes37c6,813$2,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,266.4817751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes57c3,311$1,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,437.9518746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes57c2,819$1,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.514114.6%6 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x46e7…f51ebacked No1c2,338$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1920…a04ebacked Yes45c1,876$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.0712631%39 W · 87 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-40.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes60c1,729$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.0413735%48 W · 89 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes37c1,496$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.0629423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes46c1,456$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.4428524.2%69 W · 216 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes68c1,402$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.326431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes35c1,393$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.3923321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No66c957.89$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.116741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x111e…f237backed Yes80c628.13$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.122100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No72c625.56$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.662268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfed7…9b10backed Yes21c548.91$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.443330.3%10 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8907…a996backed Yes73c526.75$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.732100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No22c508.99$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.792109.5%20 W · 190 L-0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-49.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4da7…355ebacked Yes52c426$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.227538.7%29 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x46e2…f8bbbacked No29c400$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1161838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes69c394.97$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.3815149%74 W · 77 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No71c387.89$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.638752.9%46 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e28…cf34backed Yes44c386.2$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.55333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6395…6735backed Yes60c378.47$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.572556%14 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes70c356.06$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.829434%32 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed Yes29c353.83$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.834742.6%20 W · 27 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes33c349.67$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.6117540%70 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes27c335.95$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.7326041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No19c324.37$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.12254.5%12 W · 10 L+5.5wins+0.25per pick29cpaid+88.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf434…c6aabacked No20c310$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb413…1cb7backed Yes33c299.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.734211.9%5 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes31c219.97$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.8528528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No19c219.12$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.72718.5%5 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-38.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No38c217.99$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.1813333.1%44 W · 89 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes21c214.2$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.222722.2%6 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-39.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked No21c211.06$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.573517.1%6 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-41%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed No37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741020%2 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbff…5830backed No21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+60.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x78bd…300dbacked Yes50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+34.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No26c172.2$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3648414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes57c161.92$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.6620841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed No8c150.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.52368.3%3 W · 33 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-83.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No27c150.21$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1616015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x59e4…c67bbacked Yes38c144.58$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.086330.2%19 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes65c143.04$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8767232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x254c…7678backed No64c137.54$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.513360.6%20 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa18d…b16abacked No20c136$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.21050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked No8c125.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes40c125$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7513820.3%28 W · 110 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No19c120.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.566127.9%17 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes44c119.04$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.282821.4%6 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-57%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No65c106.23$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.858332.5%27 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88d2…2421backed Yes44c102.39$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Yes24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcffe…146dbacked Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6712936.4%47 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed Yes24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7617017.1%29 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52bd…1a8abacked Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305837.9%22 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bca…b60abacked Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7011421.9%25 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8dcd…74c6backed Yes53c99.24$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.36475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed No19c98.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.972536%9 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes41c98$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.8216453.7%88 W · 76 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked No66c82.44$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4116040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31ff…98b4backed Yes54c77.6$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.72728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-54.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes25c76.93$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.711825.4%30 W · 88 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe287…5a0fbacked No27c71.12$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x978d…5eddbacked Yes34c70$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.453426.5%9 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-48.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes49c66.73$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.913534.8%47 W · 88 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes48c58.66$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.52352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+48.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x762d…872abacked No18c58.3$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbeca…e32abacked Yes37c53.42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.421241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes34c52.62$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.522254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c8…3652backed Yes77c52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.031369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes39c50.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3810827.8%30 W · 78 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e6…9767backed Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5779…168dbacked No21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51540%6 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed Yes29c49.21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.943026.7%8 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59d0…eebfbacked Yes41c48.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.773420.6%7 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes37c47.15$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.554930.6%15 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No46c46.56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.577020%14 W · 56 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes52c46.36$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.091656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb51…f32cbacked Yes27c45.74$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.394425%11 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-29.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No53c44.25$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.67944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc6b…d720backed Yes27c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.21457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc39d…b655backed No53c38.49$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95db…6b18backed Yes57c38$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.281050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec15…9b0cbacked No41c37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1790%0 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3ed…afd3backed Yes55c36.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.491464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe27e…a9d0backed No57c35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.951850%9 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No57c34.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.623619.4%7 W · 29 L-9.7wins-0.27per pick46cpaid-65.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No38c33.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.814337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b4e…e44abacked Yes75c33.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-55.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6680…c738backed Yes33c32$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3810544.8%47 W · 58 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x167d…862abacked Yes63c32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.84366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3410…d5cdbacked Yes49c30.51$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9feb…ac7abacked No59c29.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6420%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ace…6069backed Yes68c29.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.524148.8%20 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e9c…31e4backed Yes71c29.44$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23f4…eb1ebacked No73c27.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fe5…c71cbacked Yes45c25.69$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.