TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9022…db5b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
79
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Middle East, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 59 out of 100; worst F1 at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT4257.1%24 W · 18 L+5.1wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+55.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+68.2%+$91.36
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+54.1%+$55.41
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.72
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$8.83
Will Iran strike Oman again in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.22
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+26.1%+$19.33
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+41.8%+$18.34
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+50.6%+$29.74
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.98
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+193.6%+$34.34
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+31.4%+$3.83
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+30.8%+$10.34
US strikes Iraq by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$170.21
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.01
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.18
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.33
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.7
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$406Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$405.81
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$21.76
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$34.54
US strikes Iraq by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+1,184.4%+$1,293.93
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$470Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+565.5%+$2,657.89
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+112.8%+$13.24
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+82.5%+$153.33
Houthi strike on Israel by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+29.6%+$15.96
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT2055%11 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.92
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+71.4%+$18.69
Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 46m and 50m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.51
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 65m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+55.4%+$46.66
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+68.3%+$52.91
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$18.9
Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 16m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+38.9%+$29.86
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$168.86
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$14.35
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+90.1%+$159.14
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 23m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+193.6%+$63.37
Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$21.02
Will Wicked: For Good be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+89.2%+$17.16
Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+53.8%+$8.79
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 40m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$63.84
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+96.6%+$188.29
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$118.38
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+55.5%+$8.1
Will "The Spongebob Movie: Search for SquarePants" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 24m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+68.3%+$26.23
All 20 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+110%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+110%+$144.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$17.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$40.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$15.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$175.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-01-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$41.91
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.