Movies · resolved market
Will "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1cdbabb5b6748e75b50572fc37ac354335f97aa117828c63e92a178791a0446
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,004 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 0c | 5,080$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 57c | 2,961$1,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287.61 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…9b10backed No | 32c | 1,500$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 1,309$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 65c | 1,200$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.01 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 4c | 1,036$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…cba6backed No | 1c | 1,006$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed No | 77c | 823.3$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked No | 41c | 599.99$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 24c | 579.94$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.08 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked No | 28c | 475.1$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.55 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 75c | 320$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 45c | 300$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.36 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a40…53b4backed No | 68c | 290$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…0c23backed Yes | 32c | 290$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed No | 63c | 281.16$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.59 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…6069backed Yes | 58c | 238.2$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.2 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf626…8a12backed Yes | 21c | 188.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.39 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 37c | 184.17$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.13 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 32c | 155.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 76c | 148.65$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes | 26c | 141.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.01 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 24c | 133.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.35 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…091fbacked Yes | 23c | 128.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 25c | 119.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf30f…a161backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 72c | 76.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 75c | 68.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 25c | 67.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 79c | 62.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 24c | 56.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 34c | 47.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -9.7wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9022…db5bbacked Yes | 58c | 44.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa46a…9763backed Yes | 71c | 44.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed Yes | 30c | 38.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…d0d3backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b61…5e07backed Yes | 50c | 30.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…3e7abacked No | 78c | 24.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7d…1c5bbacked Yes | 74c | 16.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m?this page
- Will "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 12m?No won
- Will "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 14m?No won
- Will "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 16m?No won
- Will "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 18m?No won
- Will "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 18m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.