Movies · resolved market
Will "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 12m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeffa07fd93be08c59709b052ed007e40323da82968732751fe28847de6d7d531
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,339 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc363…9fd8backed Yes | 4c | 4,242$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.16 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 20c | 917.63$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.26 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 3c | 788.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes | 6c | 367.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 7c | 366.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 8c | 338$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 309$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 19c | 308.69$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 27c | 299.91$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.68 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 6c | 216.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes | 24c | 208.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 14c | 160$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 26c | 130$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…6069backed Yes | 39c | 128.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…ba97backed Yes | 29c | 102.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 24c | 98.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 12c | 87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 68.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 59.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce4…737abacked No | 80c | 34.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7d…a592backed No | 78c | 27.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 74c | 26.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 70c | 24.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 12m?this page
- Will "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 14m?No won
- Will "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 16m?No won
- Will "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 18m?No won
- Will "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 18m?No won
- Will "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.