Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 5, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a91264fdbaf72d559b1552f90dd1fd3c981d80a6c79d933ae3aab9a4c766479
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 1c | 2,052$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 48c | 835.24$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.65 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 23c | 757.46$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.7 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…7a70backed Yes | 67c | 743.24$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246b…1196backed Yes | 38c | 696.51$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…2cf6backed No | 73c | 481.35$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.41 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x152e…cc3dbacked Yes | 19c | 365.79$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed Yes | 13c | 309.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 24c | 302$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.12 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 71c | 290.46$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.21 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 6c | 164.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 13c | 163.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 31c | 154.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 148.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…8506backed No | 75c | 132.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 10c | 129$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…c0fbbacked Yes | 11c | 126.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 76c | 116$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +164.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe593…8692backed No | 73c | 111$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 103.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 14c | 103.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 24c | 81.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 64.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed No | 75c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 25c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9022…db5bbacked No | 76c | 57.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 24c | 51.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd282…a206backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b09…68babacked Yes | 32c | 47.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e7…98b8backed No | 71c | 35.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b49…1fadbacked No | 75c | 34.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd663…ca64backed No | 80c | 13.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.78 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 5, 2026?this page
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 2, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 3, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.