Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34abc63ca1c3bfc94d5776f98d6e93213bf5fa701ccbcd14de9ae89bec7f440a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked No | 59c | 1,851$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.79 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 13c | 1,346$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.18 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 1,200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.31 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…3477backed Yes | 38c | 1,112$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 64c | 1,007$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.07 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 42c | 714.83$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.79 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Yes | 13c | 700$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 22c | 550$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53f2…9424backed Yes | 63c | 533.38$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 15c | 520$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +268.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1892…1b4cbacked Yes | 21c | 475.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8129…5f30backed No | 65c | 339.58$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 18c | 300$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…4efdbacked Yes | 20c | 223.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd5…d534backed Yes | 59c | 198.98$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 18c | 150$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 27c | 146.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…7a70backed Yes | 40c | 134.77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 18c | 108.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 57c | 107.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9846…ca9ebacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 12c | 92.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…2cf6backed Yes | 36c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 26c | 71.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 58.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed No | 77c | 56.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…c226backed No | 78c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 40c | 33.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +10.4wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…6380backed No | 48c | 30.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…7073backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -68%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d21…caa1backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 4, 2026?this page
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 2, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 3, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 5, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.