Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0937717c4e28b3bcc67337f8900da95c073a75a2bdffdb4bdb93b1768c4c8bf6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0904…7c36backed No | 3c | 666.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 584.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…6380backed Yes | 61c | 556.83$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 3c | 513.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa3…86e8backed Yes | 68c | 391.56$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 30c | 370.73$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.78 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +164.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 4c | 352.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes | 59c | 331.81$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.9 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 34c | 301.16$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.9 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +283%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 13c | 235.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 28c | 228.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f8…5373backed Yes | 66c | 216.58$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked No | 10c | 206.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 10c | 195.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152e…cc3dbacked No | 58c | 171.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 7c | 154.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 16c | 131.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…65c9backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe593…8692backed No | 67c | 99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed No | 15c | 97.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 32c | 96.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 31c | 94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed No | 62c | 80.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 42c | 72.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 64c | 67.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 32c | 61.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 21c | 61.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 34c | 61.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e0…8236backed Yes | 77c | 38.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 57cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 29c | 36.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 67c | 34.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…75d0backed Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 77c | 22.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd897…7af4backed No | 64c | 21.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0b…2e0bbacked Yes | 52c | 21.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…2cf6backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 7, 2026?this page
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 2, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 3, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 5, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.