Movies · resolved market
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x261c34ba6fada8481624642ee2facb7a3f9324931263b4318b9c4ac501ea5830
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $147,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15d4…6dddbacked Yes | 26c | 14,936$3,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,949.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 13c | 6,349$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.71 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d34…bbffbacked Yes | 5c | 4,854$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 4c | 3,894$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.37 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 23c | 3,539$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.04 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 13c | 3,372$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.63 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2379…178ebacked Yes | 13c | 3,080$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 59c | 2,968$1,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.09 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…bb60backed Yes | 33c | 2,964$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.66 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…d38fbacked Yes | 23c | 2,132$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed Yes | 21c | 2,027$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.38 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 28c | 2,000$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.18 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f77…e7fcbacked Yes | 35c | 1,984$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…5d19backed Yes | 17c | 1,733$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…0322backed Yes | 8c | 1,477$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…2c0dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,288$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73be…9a59backed Yes | 54c | 1,232$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d0…c016backed Yes | 11c | 1,217$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,182$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.73 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,125$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.04 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 76c | 1,067$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.65 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8203…0187backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 880.56$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.39 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…d2a3backed Yes | 41c | 671.58$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 28c | 667.25$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.42 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 13c | 648.35$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 48c | 595.04$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.34 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…0764backed Yes | 42c | 586.72$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.89 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 56c | 579.44$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.95 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…86e4backed Yes | 12c | 579.37$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9722…5304backed Yes | 52c | 516.98$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 41c | 500$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.29 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2436…1858backed Yes | 20c | 495.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…c807backed Yes | 8c | 463.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…e816backed Yes | 11c | 428.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 10c | 406.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked Yes | 13c | 399.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Yes | 35c | 398.9$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71bd…bcbcbacked Yes | 70c | 350.49$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 69c | 311.85$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.69 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b9…c8adbacked Yes | 28c | 311.37$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ff…e17ebacked Yes | 74c | 271.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 58c | 261.62$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 27c | 256.53$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 255.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd18a…98aebacked No | 65c | 249$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3059…05fcbacked Yes | 10c | 242.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…9811backed Yes | 10c | 240.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 75c | 235.92$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 234$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Yes | 41c | 210$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 52c | 210$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 20c | 210$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a5…4ce7backed Yes | 45c | 204.44$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa588…3f21backed Yes | 15c | 193.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0a…c378backed Yes | 37c | 191.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 34c | 181.05$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.49 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc363…9fd8backed Yes | 39c | 180$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad0…833abacked Yes | 10c | 167.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…f1c6backed Yes | 35c | 166.29$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x774f…8779backed Yes | 13c | 165$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 38c | 160$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…a77bbacked No | 63c | 158.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 41c | 157.71$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…4446backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +363.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a9…0437backed Yes | 10c | 143.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed Yes | 32c | 140$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked No | 65c | 139.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a2…2b91backed Yes | 41c | 133$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 71c | 131.28$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…5896backed Yes | 42c | 130.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…3fecbacked No | 65c | 128.2$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 29c | 128.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Yes | 45c | 121.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 11c | 121.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed No | 64c | 115.48$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 112.53$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 73c | 105.64$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.94 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…09dcbacked Yes | 41c | 104$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…9797backed Yes | 50c | 100.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf072…cee7backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…2a85backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7feb…6bc2backed Yes | 41c | 97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 39c | 95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 39c | 94.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c22…b567backed Yes | 16c | 92.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…4b74backed No | 33c | 91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…857bbacked No | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7493…a38fbacked Yes | 17c | 87.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 85.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…167dbacked Yes | 42c | 83.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes | 43c | 81.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…5944backed Yes | 18c | 80.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 18c | 77.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 72c | 77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…bf21backed No | 59c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m?this page
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m?Yes won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 80m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.