Movies · resolved market
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9513f3b904d6476222681c34df511af10b049cef373b0438b742659237a16039
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 0c | 10,802$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 0c | 8,725$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 8c | 7,731$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.76 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73be…9a59backed Yes | 2c | 7,334$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa296…386cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,611$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,222$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…06d6backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,750$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.35 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,246$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa6…4465backed Yes | 1c | 2,075$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,891$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb0…94fbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,881$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0a…c378backed Yes | 1c | 1,723$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc923…7154backed Yes | 1c | 1,707$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d34…bbffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,636$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 6c | 1,597$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…5944backed Yes | 1c | 1,505$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,438$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,413$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,403$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3727…0b44backed Yes | 7c | 1,385$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 3c | 1,044$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 4c | 900$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 899.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…0764backed Yes | 14c | 825.25$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Yes | 3c | 800$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…86e4backed Yes | 3c | 721.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 4c | 700.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 690.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 2c | 530$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 11c | 515.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 3c | 450.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 424.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed Yes | 6c | 220.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes | 8c | 220$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8427…97c8backed Yes | 8c | 217.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 13c | 201.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…64d1backed Yes | 13c | 149.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 125.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfff0…54e7backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4c…25f4backed Yes | 23c | 88.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed No | 78c | 65.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb76d…2b01backed Yes | 20c | 58.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…40c2backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 78c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?this page
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m?Yes won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 80m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.