Movies · resolved market
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbfad08881ba3e196224e48638cdbe084b326b40e61f0b1a4aaf97fbf0cccce7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53a4…4447backed No | 14c | 6,371$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.87 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…4252backed No | 35c | 5,671$1,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,984.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed No | 7c | 3,542$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.12 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 76c | 2,887$2,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.57 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 48c | 2,653$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.9 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d34…bbffbacked No | 2c | 2,650$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Yes | 66c | 2,632$1,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.66 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 48c | 2,616$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.99 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f77…e7fcbacked Yes | 62c | 2,083$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 26c | 1,897$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.58 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 74c | 1,829$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.79 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 51c | 1,639$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.98 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 53c | 1,343$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.2 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 45c | 1,296$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.13 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 35c | 1,000$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.63 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 26c | 846.5$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.99 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 33c | 777.97$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.37 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab4…d172backed No | 14c | 706.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 26c | 705$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.94 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed No | 29c | 679.64$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.85 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 55c | 600$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 10c | 549.64$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 70c | 496.01$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.96 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 17c | 489.15$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.01 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…5850backed Yes | 70c | 471.46$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 15c | 461.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaf…ee69backed No | 49c | 406.09$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 27c | 375.44$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 30c | 370.72$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.13 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f0…ae31backed Yes | 71c | 360$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 52c | 359.99$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.59 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 15c | 357.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 72c | 303.17$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca0…a4fcbacked No | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89d7…3fabbacked No | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 31c | 260.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 20c | 228.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed Yes | 37c | 225$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 10c | 189.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 188.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…0df8backed Yes | 44c | 179.13$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.36 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 29c | 172.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…d868backed No | 72c | 170$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 45c | 170$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.2 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…4552backed No | 56c | 164.38$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…603bbacked No | 27c | 163.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 37cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63da…9146backed Yes | 69c | 155.95$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 73c | 155$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 63c | 155$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e5…5043backed No | 57c | 150.01$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b58…eb2bbacked No | 76c | 150$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed Yes | 36c | 148.36$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…4dbabacked Yes | 55c | 130$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 69c | 128$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…b131backed No | 8c | 127.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 124.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.45 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed No | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 38c | 113.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.67 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked Yes | 37c | 109.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.69 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 69c | 102.29$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x724d…da1fbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa6…794fbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 51c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 34c | 94.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…d38fbacked No | 15c | 93.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…b395backed Yes | 79c | 91.48$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0cebbacked No | 11c | 88.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…0764backed Yes | 38c | 86.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 70c | 82.58$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76ee…82bdbacked No | 13c | 80.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed No | 24c | 79.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…512cbacked No | 16c | 77.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4594…b1acbacked Yes | 68c | 74.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked Yes | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e0…572dbacked Yes | 53c | 66.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 36c | 62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x609c…9fe5backed No | 17c | 59.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e1…2e9abacked No | 23c | 55.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 23c | 55.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…6718backed Yes | 45c | 55.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…4a82backed No | 19c | 53.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…4c92backed No | 73c | 52.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x915d…50d3backed Yes | 56c | 51.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7807…2ad6backed No | 49c | 47.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4f…e58cbacked Yes | 37c | 45.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…5944backed Yes | 65c | 41.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…0373backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…7f19backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ce…7180backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +142.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…41b5backed Yes | 44c | 37.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 27cpaid | +124%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44d3…93d0backed No | 49c | 31.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m?this page
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 80m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.