Movies · resolved market
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9287f676f7756c7af5eb40c49fed68648718ffc2e8dd8812150d7550e44ef082
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,832 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 15c | 3,378$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.7 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaecb…b3e9backed Yes | 2c | 2,800$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed Yes | 1c | 2,321$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 1c | 2,257$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,760$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 4c | 1,606$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.11 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 79c | 1,455$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.67 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 6c | 817.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 5c | 720.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 9c | 637.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 19c | 614.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.2 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 580.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked Yes | 22c | 570$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.05 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 17c | 443.77$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 14c | 325.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 4c | 268.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 238.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes | 15c | 146.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 21c | 144$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…5cd6backed Yes | 20c | 127.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9022…db5bbacked Yes | 9c | 123.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9400…4f20backed Yes | 40c | 34.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?this page
- Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 16m?No won
- Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m?Yes won
- Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?No won
- Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 22m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.