Movies · resolved market
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 22m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bbdb33107aee4c28fdf083f977f05e2cb639848e9e341daddc75a7124347567
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,057 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 2c | 67,564$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.92 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5817…9e6cbacked Yes | 0c | 48,900$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…83b2backed Yes | 1c | 6,098$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 11c | 5,509$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.89 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 7c | 4,354$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.28 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 71c | 3,500$2,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.4 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 10c | 2,082$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.65 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe460…422abacked Yes | 1c | 2,052$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 31c | 1,967$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.72 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…7bf6backed Yes | 1c | 1,930$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,502$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.08 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,436$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 1,352$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,233$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.88 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 2c | 1,145$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,122$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 25c | 826.75$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.59 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…e7c0backed Yes | 7c | 672.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 24c | 662.47$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.02 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 12c | 553.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…e29ebacked Yes | 10c | 503.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 5c | 498.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 39 | 0%0 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 448$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 16c | 420.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 403$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6395…6735backed No | 70c | 401.98$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.74 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 66c | 377.65$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.4 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 79c | 323.62$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 7c | 313.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 247.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 67c | 166$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.34 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 73c | 150.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 18c | 141$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 8c | 129.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 14c | 125.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…9b0dbacked Yes | 12c | 100.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 13c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked No | 79c | 64.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Yes | 32c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 66c | 17.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 22m?this page
- Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 16m?No won
- Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m?Yes won
- Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?No won
- Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.