Movies · resolved market
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 16m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x246d5ca22b101b7e226e95cfc9f1b7591e122b6c1e003f23411a7770529561bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,109 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 0c | 55,262$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 29c | 13,177$3,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,782.43 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed No | 65c | 10,904$7,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,782.82 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,044$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 28c | 7,777$2,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,184.91 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 40c | 3,341$1,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.18 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…c521backed No | 77c | 3,336$2,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.67 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 72c | 3,077$2,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.92 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked No | 68c | 2,768$1,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.79 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 61c | 2,454$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.25 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 15c | 1,586$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.8 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 4c | 1,359$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 27c | 985.06$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.74 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 21c | 589.62$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.48 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 25c | 471.64$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.16 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 448$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 56c | 324$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.56 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 33c | 311.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.35 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 11c | 285$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 5c | 252.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 32c | 237.83$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.26 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 40c | 211.34$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 171.68$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…5cd6backed Yes | 43c | 156.12$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.05 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…923abacked No | 63c | 154$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes | 25c | 148.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 18c | 141$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf626…8a12backed Yes | 36c | 140.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x148c…ee45backed Yes | 29c | 138.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed No | 54c | 137.07$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa46a…9763backed Yes | 32c | 137$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 45c | 135.95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 133.4$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 57c | 124.41$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 46c | 122.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 36c | 110.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 37c | 93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…d1e7backed Yes | 47c | 89.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…15d2backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 79.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 25c | 76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 72c | 74.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…21b4backed Yes | 47c | 67.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b3…0991backed Yes | 36c | 66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…ff0dbacked Yes | 26c | 62.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 69c | 58.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 19c | 54.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 34c | 49.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 47.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf67…374ebacked Yes | 36c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 41.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…dd78backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…72cdbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…0482backed Yes | 45c | 33.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 45c | 32.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed0…6106backed Yes | 43c | 32.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f79…71f0backed Yes | 50c | 31.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf176…f7c4backed Yes | 34c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 33c | 30.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92c6…2bafbacked No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…3e7abacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 71c | 18.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 16m?this page
- Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m?Yes won
- Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?No won
- Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 22m?No won
- Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.