Movies · resolved market
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 23m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x792e15b1dbd13e9f4843f854402b11002dcda1de3d7d34c2503efda3448fd597
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 32c | 7,500$2,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,116.51 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed Yes | 25c | 3,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d86fbacked No | 55c | 2,726$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.46 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 62c | 1,935$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.76 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 45c | 1,681$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.82 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 66c | 1,558$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.47 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 54c | 1,382$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.79 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 31c | 904.22$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.8 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 31c | 599.99$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.45 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 27c | 453.31$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.77 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…c1c0backed Yes | 21c | 376.36$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.32 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 30c | 369.8$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.9 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 26c | 333.3$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.15 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Yes | 44c | 177.43$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.43 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed Yes | 65c | 136$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Yes | 39c | 133.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.04 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9022…db5bbacked Yes | 34c | 96.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.37 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…fe95backed Yes | 31c | 85.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 42cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 74c | 75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…098abacked Yes | 35c | 72.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 55.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…c67bbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 28c | 49.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe66a…a0a0backed Yes | 37c | 48.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…7350backed Yes | 34c | 48.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 34c | 48.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b33…8c31backed Yes | 33c | 45.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac3…ef53backed No | 74c | 37.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 45c | 27.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…473bbacked Yes | 66c | 26.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4f…e58cbacked Yes | 78c | 23.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 23m?this page
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 23m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 21m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.