Movies · resolved market
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 23m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb17b901be5669459ddbe6acb8f091b7fce9650d8d8281e9a95777ade6673da9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed Yes | 15c | 10,492$1,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,534.04 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Yes | 21c | 9,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed No | 72c | 8,293$5,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,320.2 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 4c | 2,311$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.39 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed No | 79c | 2,275$1,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.32 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 33c | 2,000$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 4c | 1,769$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.77 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,631$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.25 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea96…11e3backed Yes | 30c | 1,300$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 15c | 1,263$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.47 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,234$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed No | 66c | 1,224$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.73 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed Yes | 5c | 984$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f1…9d04backed Yes | 4c | 859.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8352…5a51backed Yes | 2c | 777.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x144d…06c2backed Yes | 13c | 765.53$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 2c | 759.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed Yes | 22c | 700$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 516.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…edd4backed Yes | 34c | 479.98$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.4 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 9c | 473.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90d6…997abacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…b07ebacked Yes | 6c | 370.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…1bd6backed Yes | 6c | 319.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…9c20backed Yes | 14c | 287.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 56c | 191.8$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.52 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 66c | 180.77$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.7 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…dad8backed Yes | 22c | 156.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 36c | 153.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…e4eabacked Yes | 39c | 149.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 68c | 122$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…098abacked No | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6758…d25ebacked Yes | 12c | 104.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…e633backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c7…9450backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked No | 55c | 95.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 28c | 90.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3321…fefbbacked Yes | 50c | 87.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…5623backed Yes | 45c | 87.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed No | 69c | 85.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1d…95debacked Yes | 26c | 78.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 74c | 56.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…c2c6backed No | 50c | 55.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…bb87backed No | 54c | 53.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…de29backed Yes | 25c | 48.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 74c | 47.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87e…33abbacked Yes | 26c | 45.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 35c | 41.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60f5…2b9ebacked Yes | 45c | 37.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c95…3babbacked No | 55c | 36.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b90…3c8bbacked Yes | 40c | 33.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a64…e9e2backed No | 58c | 31.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…6899backed Yes | 40c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fba…e0f1backed Yes | 40c | 30.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x123e…40a8backed No | 62c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a9…3b6abacked No | 61c | 24.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f0…770dbacked No | 61c | 23.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf410…414abacked No | 62c | 19.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2090…bb62backed No | 77c | 17.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…865abacked No | 61c | 16.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…bff1backed No | 79c | 13.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 23m?this page
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 23m?Yes won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 21m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.