Movies · resolved market
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 21m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf1b354bb280ddd3b0231ec3b94a9c58d5066de0167a92e25532719f4a915ab7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 52c | 18,395$9,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,619.32 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 2c | 9,585$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.53 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcac9…200bbacked No | 59c | 7,053$4,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,910.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 12c | 6,313$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 15c | 2,965$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.81 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed Yes | 10c | 2,923$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.26 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed Yes | 57c | 2,173$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.71 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 29c | 2,137$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.9 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 31c | 2,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea96…11e3backed No | 53c | 1,900$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 52c | 1,835$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.1 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…3d61backed Yes | 72c | 1,588$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3400…14eebacked Yes | 33c | 1,399$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,356$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,230$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.97 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 70c | 1,106$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.18 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 3c | 999.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 36c | 906.59$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.27 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 15c | 900$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 25c | 885.21$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77af…f959backed No | 72c | 665.71$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0e…46e7backed No | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…e03dbacked Yes | 19c | 566.14$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe632…aa26backed Yes | 44c | 460$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 11c | 400$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed No | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8308…ca4bbacked No | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32a…06fdbacked Yes | 4c | 399.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x144d…06c2backed Yes | 40c | 392.5$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 6c | 392$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 31c | 383$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.03 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…c67bbacked Yes | 73c | 364.77$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.8 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…1282backed Yes | 17c | 352.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked Yes | 60c | 340$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.4 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c95…3babbacked Yes | 15c | 292.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 74c | 224.91$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed Yes | 9c | 223.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 9c | 220.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 11c | 212.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d86fbacked Yes | 33c | 199.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa854…3856backed Yes | 20c | 167.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a3…880bbacked No | 78c | 166.75$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 163.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 9c | 160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked Yes | 48c | 155.58$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…e633backed No | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 64c | 145.61$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.76 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee78…699fbacked No | 70c | 140$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…098abacked Yes | 35c | 127.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…d308backed No | 73c | 117$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 23c | 102.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 14c | 102.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.75 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +22.0wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +88%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x90d6…997abacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ca…960bbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 99.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 64c | 79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked No | 64c | 77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…6be5backed Yes | 47c | 75.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…a1e2backed Yes | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6758…d25ebacked No | 47c | 72.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x123e…40a8backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…bb87backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…c2c6backed No | 69c | 55.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 77c | 51.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 60c | 43.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1959…0b3fbacked Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 41c | 34.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…3ba9backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…3e8bbacked No | 73c | 29.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a55…973bbacked Yes | 58c | 29.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87e…33abbacked Yes | 45c | 26.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb4…bdc5backed Yes | 69c | 21.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…c770backed No | 56c | 18.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 21m?this page
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 23m?Yes won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 23m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.