Middle East · resolved market
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56b19b7b506bb1045e1b3449866b4e70fd37a8515ffb995c28445203823e37d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $560,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $550,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $560,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 640 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 60c | 34,592$20,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,697.82 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 26c | 28,562$7,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,336.79 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 50c | 15,594$7,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,750.85 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 11,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked No | 11c | 10,136$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.22 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 40c | 9,768$3,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,818.31 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked No | 6c | 9,451$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed No | 5c | 8,659$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.15 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 7,897$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1e…44b8backed No | 1c | 6,935$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 71c | 6,668$4,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,937.79 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69d1…b1b9backed No | 9c | 5,415$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.75 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa609…6844backed No | 0c | 5,344$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f2…7c82backed No | 8c | 4,923$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +105%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 40c | 3,669$1,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,187.38 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 10c | 3,649$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.55 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 41c | 3,643$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,141.35 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 3,624$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.18 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…2393backed No | 65c | 3,203$2,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,073.56 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fd…4b39backed Yes | 43c | 3,181$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,810.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x962b…9f07backed No | 8c | 3,000$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked No | 60c | 2,861$1,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,724.66 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e45…644cbacked Yes | 71c | 2,800$1,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b5…4c72backed No | 12c | 2,776$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.84 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +10.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes | 57c | 2,522$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.02 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 25c | 2,396$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,794.23 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed No | 9c | 2,250$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.52 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 2,235$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.6 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f3…b4cebacked Yes | 79c | 2,231$1,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…21bebacked No | 26c | 2,219$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.22 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 7c | 2,150$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 31c | 2,116$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.55 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 55c | 1,893$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.61 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc432…0cd3backed Yes | 71c | 1,812$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…4665backed Yes | 40c | 1,751$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.73 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 65c | 1,749$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.21 | 138 | 29%40 W · 98 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed No | 74c | 1,714$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.48 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed Yes | 27c | 1,580$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.14 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 9c | 1,553$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.35 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…9b78backed Yes | 42c | 1,512$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.57 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 36c | 1,506$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.45 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…5309backed No | 58c | 1,504$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6f…359fbacked No | 53c | 1,501$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0e…33afbacked Yes | 57c | 1,500$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6608…35d3backed Yes | 53c | 1,491$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.99 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 53c | 1,474$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.96 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 13c | 1,458$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.47 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…6e13backed Yes | 32c | 1,448$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed No | 73c | 1,386$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.79 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed Yes | 32c | 1,358$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.44 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes | 26c | 1,340$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.6 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 6c | 1,334$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 60c | 1,298$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.84 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e08…7e2ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,280$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…9357backed Yes | 26c | 1,247$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.73 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No | 72c | 1,235$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.65 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…fc01backed No | 69c | 1,214$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 59c | 1,210$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.14 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4aeebacked Yes | 39c | 1,150$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a12…684cbacked Yes | 61c | 1,105$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.77 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked No | 68c | 1,101$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.68 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes | 46c | 1,099$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.67 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked Yes | 25c | 1,073$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.75 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes | 59c | 1,061$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.12 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed Yes | 54c | 1,058$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.8 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f9…fdcfbacked No | 7c | 1,043$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed Yes | 33c | 1,034$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.78 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +110%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…d8b8backed Yes | 34c | 1,018$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.7 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked No | 76c | 1,003$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.28 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…cd52backed Yes | 31c | 1,002$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +124%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefaa…8716backed No | 11c | 1,000$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +10.9wins | +0.52per pick | 20cpaid | +297%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…a135backed Yes | 62c | 999.99$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed Yes | 34c | 956$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.96 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…1796backed Yes | 33c | 947$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.49 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked No | 68c | 940$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.2 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…a634backed Yes | 22c | 936$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb7…3b83backed Yes | 70c | 917.83$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.83 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…7f19backed Yes | 25c | 917$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.75 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.42per pick | 38cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed Yes | 22c | 900$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 4c | 899.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 62c | 876.63$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.49 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaffd…b072backed Yes | 26c | 864$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.36 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…d947backed Yes | 32c | 857$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed Yes | 34c | 850$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…1b18backed Yes | 55c | 840.8$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 26c | 827$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.98 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…0c32backed No | 73c | 825$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.37per pick | 49cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…28a0backed Yes | 40c | 820.33$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.96 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked Yes | 26c | 804$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.96 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 10c | 800$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed No | 68c | 783$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.44 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked No | 78c | 778$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.84 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked Yes | 32c | 764$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.52 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x406c…c58ebacked Yes | 40c | 757.21$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.21 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 36c | 752.43$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.18 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed No | 75c | 752$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked Yes | 48c | 750$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.6 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 42c | 750$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 9c | 747.87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…74b0backed Yes | 22c | 743$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.