Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iraq by March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b542974121a934ca9dd13d11eacaebca7ce465fcc3146df90605aae897605e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,555,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,555,815 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 726 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f7c…cb5fbacked No | 1c | 317,273$4,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,709.59 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1081…3db0backed No | 0c | 69,458$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccca…201ebacked Yes | 75c | 55,634$41,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,083.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…b136backed No | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4538…7d5cbacked No | 0c | 37,075$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe8…82a8backed No | 0c | 29,950$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Yes | 74c | 28,777$21,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,510.06 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe6…92a3backed No | 0c | 28,594$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a6…9ca4backed No | 0c | 27,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a76…53debacked No | 2c | 24,671$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.93 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6515…a2b2backed No | 0c | 22,250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…da0cbacked Yes | 76c | 21,137$15,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,143.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +1,560.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…f814backed No | 0c | 20,042$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed No | 0c | 20,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 15c | 18,302$2,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,762.03 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 65c | 17,986$11,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,372.59 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…f2debacked No | 0c | 17,975$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17a8…1ab3backed No | 0c | 17,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…9ae7backed No | 1c | 16,195$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.74 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…ed6dbacked No | 0c | 16,048$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 1cpaid | +2,534.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 16c | 15,481$2,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,480.01 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…321ebacked No | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 44c | 14,844$6,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,468.64 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 14,822$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3148…bc30backed Yes | 63c | 14,783$9,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,536.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…6ca1backed Yes | 75c | 14,520$10,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,630.33 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e17…5aacbacked No | 18c | 14,428$2,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,610.61 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.40per pick | 37cpaid | +149.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 65c | 14,303$9,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,041.43 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 37c | 13,161$4,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,818.54 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…5b30backed No | 0c | 12,935$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 61c | 12,640$7,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,928.27 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 21c | 12,155$2,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,510.06 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3c…276dbacked No | 0c | 11,310$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabe2…ca47backed No | 0c | 11,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f9…8a8bbacked No | 0c | 10,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b0…15f3backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7f…31c9backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdc…28c7backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…979dbacked No | 55c | 9,065$4,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,979.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…2912backed No | 0c | 8,333$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3b…b645backed No | 0c | 8,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 29c | 7,711$2,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,259.64 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…e049backed No | 18c | 7,172$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.46 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +8.2wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 78c | 7,056$5,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,554.56 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…357dbacked Yes | 67c | 7,037$4,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,344.64 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +23%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c3…b8bfbacked No | 0c | 6,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x931c…9d7fbacked No | 0c | 6,369$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 36c | 6,352$2,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,308.05 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…d0a9backed No | 0c | 6,088$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed No | 22c | 5,560$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223.1 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 26c | 5,327$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.44 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c6…5d0bbacked No | 42c | 5,302$2,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,218.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 22c | 5,105$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.39 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaa…51dfbacked No | 18c | 4,937$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.89 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +9.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfec9…5b70backed No | 0c | 4,925$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 42c | 4,915$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,069.74 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 3c | 4,790$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.25 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 4c | 4,762$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.17 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 33c | 4,550$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.56 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb9…9725backed No | 27c | 4,433$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.01 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9245…b570backed No | 21c | 4,428$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…697abacked Yes | 70c | 4,402$3,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +98%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110e…8b11backed Yes | 56c | 4,268$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,868.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…d5babacked No | 28c | 4,203$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 24c | 4,156$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.91 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368b…2458backed No | 14c | 4,103$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.74 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…ffe2backed No | 22c | 4,102$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.62 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…a75cbacked No | 2c | 3,940$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…7d29backed No | 64c | 3,681$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,339.88 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 57c | 3,460$1,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 26c | 3,333$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.58 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 14c | 3,240$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 64c | 3,212$2,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,171.36 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +20.7wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5b19…9197backed No | 23c | 3,138$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…85eabacked No | 4c | 3,070$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d4…6d24backed Yes | 77c | 2,992$2,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…333dbacked Yes | 72c | 2,930$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.16 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebd…888ebacked Yes | 67c | 2,874$1,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.15 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 2,861$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.2 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…45bebacked No | 2c | 2,859$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed No | 61c | 2,824$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,711.65 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 42cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed No | 4c | 2,592$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.34 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 76c | 2,538$1,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.2 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked No | 30c | 2,500$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked No | 30c | 2,479$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.18 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…bed4backed No | 0c | 2,360$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…dba8backed No | 7c | 2,336$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4077…7434backed No | 10c | 2,318$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43bf…c53abacked Yes | 67c | 2,280$1,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.37 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 1c | 2,278$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 6c | 2,229$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.87 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b7…fa4bbacked No | 1c | 2,183$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed No | 29c | 2,169$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd650…bbd5backed No | 1c | 2,056$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…3727backed No | 24c | 2,023$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.58 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed No | 2c | 1,986$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb630…f3e6backed No | 35c | 1,894$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.81 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef8f…5cbcbacked No | 1c | 1,872$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iraq by March 7?this page
- US strikes Iraq by March 31Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.