Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iraq by March 31
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7205efb055fd4bc22063a709571c74602541d8e34e078f49735f1e45da8bdb16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,513 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 16c | 4,576$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.82 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed02…85f7backed No | 16c | 2,553$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x368b…2458backed No | 12c | 2,454$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.94 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…cb5fbacked No | 19c | 2,269$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.54 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9245…b570backed No | 7c | 2,237$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 13c | 1,574$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.18 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaa…51dfbacked No | 16c | 1,326$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.23 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +9.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc072…eb37backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 995.02$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.69 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 6c | 822.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 15c | 804.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.05 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…d747backed No | 7c | 800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd505…2774backed No | 14c | 715.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 10c | 673$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 20c | 513.52$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.08 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…a03bbacked No | 13c | 502.3$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…7f10backed No | 23c | 436.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 13c | 433.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 13c | 428.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 13c | 421$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 69c | 417.35$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.29 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 15c | 401.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 242 | 24.4%59 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…6c6dbacked No | 9c | 399.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 15c | 344.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 10c | 340.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 18c | 261.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…657cbacked No | 5c | 240$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 75c | 234.31$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa19…2486backed No | 20c | 216$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 27cpaid | +955.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 9c | 210.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed Yes | 76c | 210.53$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.53 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 5c | 209.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 118 | 16.1%19 W · 99 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8080…8a7ebacked No | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 14c | 186.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a31…1f3cbacked No | 8c | 186.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04c…11aebacked No | 16c | 184.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 11c | 180$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc606…bb89backed No | 24c | 177.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…adf8backed Yes | 80c | 160$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked No | 7c | 159.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1445…60eebacked No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…cec1backed No | 18c | 151.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 12c | 146.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa901…d418backed No | 10c | 141.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc0…3748backed No | 17c | 140$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d54…2687backed No | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7f…f922backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99cd…bafbbacked No | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed Yes | 78c | 114.08$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 13c | 113.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd6…0471backed No | 15c | 102.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 15c | 102$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1525…b953backed No | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 17c | 85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x231e…9297backed Yes | 68c | 81.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked No | 15c | 81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 15c | 80.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ae…be02backed No | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 24c | 79.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…a5a5backed No | 25c | 78.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…6636backed No | 14c | 72.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 69c | 58.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked No | 21c | 48.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…ea6fbacked No | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 70c | 45.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbb…8fa5backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 79cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce0…7df2backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…c90dbacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…80efbacked Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…48debacked No | 40c | 37.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…6a5dbacked No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…2d5abacked Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebd…888ebacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd706…fac2backed Yes | 74c | 20.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…33e2backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7af4…d483backed No | 59c | 17.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 73c | 17.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xff5a…ab91backed Yes | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iraq by March 31this page
- US strikes Iraq by March 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.