TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,569,450

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,569,450 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6139…6b7abacked No60c42,403$25,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,776.9621531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes69c33,135$22,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,792.136750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x878f…1755backed Yes36c30,931$11,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,175.753221.9%7 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-59.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x16a8…7d0cbacked Yes21c26,891$5,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,640.852725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed Yes54c24,224$13,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,059.4112654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x2fad…f5c0backed No36c24,059$8,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,488.243661.1%22 W · 14 L+9.1wins+0.25per pick36cpaid+51.7%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x96ef…5523backed No66c22,089$14,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,548.5211842.4%50 W · 68 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d15…c454backed No65c20,463$13,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,251.444465.9%29 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes53c20,406$10,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,799.8737740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes0c18,675$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.484769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked No57c18,159$10,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,835.718359%49 W · 34 L+0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c18,067$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.59721.4%1 W · 71 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-67.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4586…c4bebacked No76c15,872$12,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,853.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No48c15,415$7,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,982.2719930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3968…2b0fbacked No51c15,214$7,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,486.162142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf603…82f1backed Yes1c15,200$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.542213.6%3 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Yes8c15,173$1,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,280.95151%26 W · 25 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+48.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No52c15,047$7,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,272.8921259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes15c14,994$2,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,18749023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes17c14,619$2,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,498.68519.8%5 W · 46 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-69.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No37c13,919$5,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,764.2536227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes55c13,294$7,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,295.0831241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No67c12,832$8,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,216.369154.9%50 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes62c12,812$7,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,880.9127643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…89bbbacked Yes50c11,128$5,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,589.516633.3%22 W · 44 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x718e…3ef9backed Yes34c10,570$3,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,644.712619.2%5 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-44%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x88ac…fac3backed Yes30c10,314$3,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,128.891723.5%4 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick11cpaid+162.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5436…e25dbacked No69c10,262$7,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,212.68862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+34%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x612b…6fddbacked No58c10,070$5,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,209.942152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe622…8ae4backed Yes30c10,023$3,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,036.45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabdb…73dabacked Yes15c10,006$1,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,507.724129.3%12 W · 29 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+99%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88ae…809abacked Yes54c9,977$5,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,416.593348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+19%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x508f…502dbacked Yes59c9,701$5,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,7021741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No45c9,693$4,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,296.9415234.2%52 W · 100 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf6…f604backed No24c9,366$2,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,101.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7525…cde1backed No55c9,326$5,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,159.154537.8%17 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes23c8,882$2,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,023.4743212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes4c8,762$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.671657.3%12 W · 153 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes34c8,748$2,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,979.4442738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No74c8,700$6,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,265.1964339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb157…f7cebacked Yes9c8,592$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.084022.5%9 W · 31 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick10cpaid+91.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x32bf…c556backed Yes25c8,502$2,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,166.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes5c8,399$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.12837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick15cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b79…47e6backed No52c8,207$4,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,959.053246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf23…aa95backed Yes4c8,191$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.4512054.2%65 W · 55 L+10.7wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes29c8,000$2,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,352.88150.6%41 W · 40 L+12.7wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+33.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc3db…0f98backed Yes3c7,777$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.27150.7%36 W · 35 L+11.2wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+94.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x900b…8c1bbacked Yes38c7,673$2,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,896.111136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+56.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed No39c7,626$2,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,668.4818531.9%59 W · 126 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eeb…c2e2backed Yes41c7,337$2,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,998.491136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36aa…47b9backed Yes42c7,278$3,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,043.041020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-47%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes3c6,779$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.2113544.4%60 W · 75 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-1.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x15cd…f483backed Yes9c6,709$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.951612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-76.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes50c6,287$3,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,174.2613829%40 W · 98 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid+7.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xecdf…dd37backed Yes7c6,164$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.961330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes43c6,040$2,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,625.7748630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe17f…9d41backed Yes10c6,016$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+57.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c6,000$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.253588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa94f…6d6fbacked No35c5,929$2,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,830.732055%11 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+27.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7463…befbbacked No33c5,537$1,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,726.313043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9359…4aeebacked Yes8c5,536$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.556622.7%15 W · 51 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed No48c5,304$2,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,774.3713441.8%56 W · 78 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8a2…599ebacked Yes37c5,279$1,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,956.540%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc747…de65backed Yes41c4,966$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0161838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes40c4,848$1,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,931.2710945.9%50 W · 59 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0735…005dbacked No17c4,734$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,930.36832.4%22 W · 46 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes51c4,686$2,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,375.9945843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f8a…9506backed Yes57c4,571$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6001338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes69c4,567$3,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,134.5822529.8%67 W · 158 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes6c4,524$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.4938247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No46c4,524$2,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,430.7350130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes34c4,451$1,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,528.2129254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8aaa…51dfbacked Yes37c4,229$1,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,578.757938%30 W · 49 L+9.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+42.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3646…f71bbacked Yes66c4,208$2,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,792.7620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes63c4,106$2,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,583.0320736.2%75 W · 132 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84dd…8701backed Yes79c4,039$3,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,193.623360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcf8…4caabacked Yes27c4,017$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.71616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-67.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9963…32e4backed No43c3,949$1,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250.82944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes25c3,856$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.7347334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes38c3,834$1,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,440.6614036.4%51 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7653…4c82backed Yes38c3,798$1,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,443.2550%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes17c3,759$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.5232243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdae6…e440backed Yes75c3,756$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,799.588648.8%42 W · 44 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+38.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes45c3,692$1,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,655.246235.5%22 W · 40 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+15.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc88…45d4backed Yes53c3,495$1,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,855.91435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bcf…0d1bbacked Yes44c3,466$1,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,537.814136.6%15 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6a1…c976backed No23c3,390$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,596.12837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No73c3,356$2,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91535631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked Yes46c3,346$1,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,536.8821034.3%72 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No15c3,328$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,833.4530649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed No70c3,323$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.5310558.1%61 W · 44 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No69c3,302$2,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.736127.9%17 W · 44 L-10.6wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-42.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xd624…a0f8backed Yes68c3,249$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2005234.6%18 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes53c3,235$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,720.4423839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No59c3,234$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.638749.4%43 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda9e…ac09backed Yes7c3,104$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.645151%26 W · 25 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb24d…c330backed Yes13c3,100$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.6190%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x673f…8b9bbacked Yes69c3,045$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+55.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No10c3,040$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7369535.8%34 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd505…2774backed No44c3,018$1,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.19922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-60.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.