Middle East · resolved market
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c3f9482e5c8d1c00ad849581324b5e224f5e960476f535453e04c1f55d4ea49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,569,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,569,450 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 60c | 42,403$25,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,776.96 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 69c | 33,135$22,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,792.1 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x878f…1755backed Yes | 36c | 30,931$11,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,175.75 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16a8…7d0cbacked Yes | 21c | 26,891$5,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,640.85 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 54c | 24,224$13,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,059.41 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2fad…f5c0backed No | 36c | 24,059$8,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,488.24 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +9.1wins | +0.25per pick | 36cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed No | 66c | 22,089$14,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,548.52 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…c454backed No | 65c | 20,463$13,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,251.44 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 53c | 20,406$10,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,799.87 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 18,675$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 57c | 18,159$10,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,835.71 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 18,067$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.59 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4586…c4bebacked No | 76c | 15,872$12,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,853.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 48c | 15,415$7,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,982.27 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…2b0fbacked No | 51c | 15,214$7,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,486.16 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf603…82f1backed Yes | 1c | 15,200$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.54 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Yes | 8c | 15,173$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.9 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 52c | 15,047$7,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,272.89 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 15c | 14,994$2,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,187 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 17c | 14,619$2,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,498.68 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 37c | 13,919$5,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,764.25 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 55c | 13,294$7,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,295.08 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 67c | 12,832$8,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,216.36 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 62c | 12,812$7,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,880.91 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…89bbbacked Yes | 50c | 11,128$5,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,589.51 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x718e…3ef9backed Yes | 34c | 10,570$3,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,644.71 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88ac…fac3backed Yes | 30c | 10,314$3,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,128.89 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +162.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5436…e25dbacked No | 69c | 10,262$7,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,212.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x612b…6fddbacked No | 58c | 10,070$5,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,209.94 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…8ae4backed Yes | 30c | 10,023$3,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,036.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdb…73dabacked Yes | 15c | 10,006$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,507.72 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +99%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…809abacked Yes | 54c | 9,977$5,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,416.59 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508f…502dbacked Yes | 59c | 9,701$5,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,702 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 45c | 9,693$4,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,296.94 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…f604backed No | 24c | 9,366$2,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,101.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…cde1backed No | 55c | 9,326$5,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,159.15 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 23c | 8,882$2,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,023.47 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 4c | 8,762$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.67 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 34c | 8,748$2,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,979.44 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 74c | 8,700$6,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,265.19 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked Yes | 9c | 8,592$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.08 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32bf…c556backed Yes | 25c | 8,502$2,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,166.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…5b27backed Yes | 5c | 8,399$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 15cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…47e6backed No | 52c | 8,207$4,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,959.05 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 4c | 8,191$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.45 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 29c | 8,000$2,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,352.8 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed Yes | 3c | 7,777$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.2 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x900b…8c1bbacked Yes | 38c | 7,673$2,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,896.11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 39c | 7,626$2,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,668.48 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eeb…c2e2backed Yes | 41c | 7,337$2,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,998.49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…47b9backed Yes | 42c | 7,278$3,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,043.04 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 3c | 6,779$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.21 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15cd…f483backed Yes | 9c | 6,709$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.95 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 50c | 6,287$3,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,174.26 | 138 | 29%40 W · 98 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecdf…dd37backed Yes | 7c | 6,164$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.96 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 43c | 6,040$2,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,625.77 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17f…9d41backed Yes | 10c | 6,016$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa94f…6d6fbacked No | 35c | 5,929$2,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,830.73 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…befbbacked No | 33c | 5,537$1,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,726.31 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4aeebacked Yes | 8c | 5,536$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.55 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 48c | 5,304$2,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,774.37 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…599ebacked Yes | 37c | 5,279$1,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,956.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc747…de65backed Yes | 41c | 4,966$2,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,016 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes | 40c | 4,848$1,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,931.27 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked No | 17c | 4,734$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,930.3 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 51c | 4,686$2,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,375.99 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8a…9506backed Yes | 57c | 4,571$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 69c | 4,567$3,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,134.58 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 6c | 4,524$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.49 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 46c | 4,524$2,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,430.73 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 34c | 4,451$1,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,528.21 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaa…51dfbacked Yes | 37c | 4,229$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,578.75 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +9.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…f71bbacked Yes | 66c | 4,208$2,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,792.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 63c | 4,106$2,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,583.03 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed Yes | 79c | 4,039$3,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,193.62 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf8…4caabacked Yes | 27c | 4,017$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9963…32e4backed No | 43c | 3,949$1,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 25c | 3,856$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.73 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 38c | 3,834$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440.66 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7653…4c82backed Yes | 38c | 3,798$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 17c | 3,759$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.52 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdae6…e440backed Yes | 75c | 3,756$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,799.58 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 45c | 3,692$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.24 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc88…45d4backed Yes | 53c | 3,495$1,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,855.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…0d1bbacked Yes | 44c | 3,466$1,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,537.81 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…c976backed No | 23c | 3,390$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,596.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 73c | 3,356$2,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 46c | 3,346$1,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536.88 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 15c | 3,328$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,833.45 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 70c | 3,323$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.53 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 69c | 3,302$2,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.73 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -10.6wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd624…a0f8backed Yes | 68c | 3,249$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 53c | 3,235$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720.44 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 59c | 3,234$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,333.63 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed Yes | 7c | 3,104$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.64 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb24d…c330backed Yes | 13c | 3,100$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.61 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x673f…8b9bbacked Yes | 69c | 3,045$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 10c | 3,040$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,736 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd505…2774backed No | 44c | 3,018$1,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679.19 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.