TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb24d…c330

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
43
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Ncaa Basketball, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Ncaa Basketball at 51 out of 100; worst Premier League at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-48.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trail Blazers vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.27
Mavericks vs. Bucksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.62
Thunder vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.75
Clippers vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$71.62
Jazz vs. Bucksbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Heat vs. Hornetsbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+257.1%+$36
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$10.55
Heat vs. Sunsbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+58.7%+$9.85
Wizards vs. Kingsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$52
Clippers vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$204.89
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$417Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$416.61
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.75
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$45.56
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$537Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$537.07
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 9 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jan 27, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Delaware State Hornets vs. South Carolina State Bulldogsbacked South Carolina State Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+35.5%+$9.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump out as President by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$204.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$10.27
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.