TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jazz vs. Bucks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bucksof Jazz, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,051,694

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,051,694 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,255 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Jazz20c298,450$60,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,846.5787144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a57…2afabacked Bucks80c280,530$224,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,483.188944.9%40 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Jazz21c228,968$48,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,083.1872648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed Jazz21c114,300$24,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,002.7211653.4%62 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked Bucks79c100,000$79,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,999.9711955.5%66 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Jazz20c44,373$8,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,874.2932653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbab7…bc7cbacked Bucks80c33,500$26,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,7009054.4%49 W · 41 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd47d…c0dcbacked Jazz20c33,500$6,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,699.981040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Bucks79c28,265$22,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,971.384,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Bucks79c25,000$19,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,25034456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2580…1d56backed Jazz20c24,311$4,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,94711737.6%44 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Bucks79c24,000$18,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0401,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Jazz21c20,651$4,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,266.2441832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Bucks80c20,274$16,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,074.091,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Jazz20c20,160$4,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,063.2732540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ceb…7dfbbacked Jazz20c20,001$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0002646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c1d…3846backed Bucks80c20,000$16,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0006943.5%30 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf2c…097cbacked Bucks79c20,000$15,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2003177.4%24 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a1a…83eabacked Jazz21c20,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,199.713259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Jazz20c20,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00027424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x62f2…07f8backed Bucks80c17,500$14,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5002060%12 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Bucks79c16,579$13,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,481.562,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bucks79c15,323$12,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,226.772,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Jazz18c14,276$2,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,525.4513442.5%57 W · 77 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Jazz7c13,345$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.921,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks79c13,164$10,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,758.049,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab75…cce0backed Bucks79c13,064$10,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,743.5214450.7%73 W · 71 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4daa…db78backed Bucks78c11,697$9,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,573.37785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick54cpaid+60.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Jazz19c11,620$2,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,207.6958740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67f4…0cb2backed Jazz0c10,820$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.822759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6165…db3cbacked Bucks80c10,018$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,018.328662.8%54 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b1…968abacked Jazz21c10,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,099.74143.9%18 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d73…9aadbacked Jazz20c10,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Bucks79c9,999$7,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,099.7937557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd162…0d24backed Jazz24c9,340$2,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,227.884843.8%21 W · 27 L+4.8wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+33.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Bucks79c8,181$6,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,680.7831453.5%168 W · 146 L+0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Jazz19c8,025$1,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,524.5424831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Jazz23c8,000$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,84032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa89c…398fbacked Jazz22c8,000$1,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,747.0912524.8%31 W · 94 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Jazz20c8,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.9957950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x046c…8ca3backed Bucks78c7,384$5,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,634.319330.1%28 W · 65 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c75…b299backed Jazz21c7,267$1,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5264438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Jazz22c6,985$1,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,536.5929352.6%154 W · 139 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Jazz19c6,640$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.554,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Jazz8c6,385$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.681,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95d8…1accbacked Jazz21c6,382$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3401361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.21per pick40cpaid+46.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bucks78c6,099$4,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.624,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Jazz21c6,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2601,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6d0…9391backed Jazz22c5,900$1,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,29827247.1%128 W · 144 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Bucks79c5,812$4,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,220.524744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Jazz1c5,413$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.131,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fde…8ab1backed Bucks79c5,396$4,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.7910769.2%74 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66b6…159dbacked Bucks79c5,063$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.46357.1%36 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Jazz22c5,050$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110.71,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Jazz0c5,016$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.628820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f82…9b01backed Jazz20c5,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.716635.5%59 W · 107 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Jazz21c5,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.7618547%87 W · 98 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Jazz21c5,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xceb5…3fbfbacked Bucks79c5,000$3,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.996445.3%29 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8436…4c19backed Jazz22c4,998$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.63366.7%22 W · 11 L+5.7wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+55.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3ae5…ead2backed Jazz20c4,925$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9755248.1%25 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8150…e7f1backed Jazz21c4,583$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.85632.1%18 W · 38 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x803e…2059backed Bucks78c4,500$3,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9901942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x184f…389ebacked Jazz22c4,500$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9903158.1%18 W · 13 L+4.8wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+25.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0aa3…64e9backed Jazz22c4,453$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.666358.7%37 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6203…6280backed Jazz21c4,410$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.154443.2%19 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+37.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20e5…d3bcbacked Jazz20c4,200$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84022637.2%84 W · 142 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Jazz2c4,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10067921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Bucks80c3,947$3,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.7555346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf05…291bbacked Jazz23c3,913$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9002744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Jazz21c3,859$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.511,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Jazz22c3,855$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.550241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Bucks77c3,789$2,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.2610743%46 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Bucks68c3,638$2,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.42,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09bf…da1ebacked Bucks78c3,600$2,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.991662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8373…5dbcbacked Bucks80c3,504$2,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.121353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick65cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Bucks78c3,440$2,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.6428554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Jazz21c3,440$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.8785344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Jazz1c3,221$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.217211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Bucks79c3,204$2,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.381,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Jazz21c3,110$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.0665750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Bucks77c3,077$2,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.4641652.2%217 W · 199 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Bucks79c3,058$2,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.741,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ae…a7b9backed Jazz20c3,052$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002025%5 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c49…dd2dbacked Bucks80c3,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60020048%96 W · 104 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdab4…a27abacked Jazz21c3,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6308944.9%40 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51da…f42fbacked Bucks78c3,000$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6601855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1520…378fbacked Bucks80c3,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.9920453.9%110 W · 94 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Jazz20c2,945$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.091,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Bucks75c2,921$2,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.5739744.3%176 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x019b…3e0cbacked Bucks80c2,874$2,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.121338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.22per pick61cpaid-44.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4829…f201backed Jazz16c2,859$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4654740.4%19 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0c3…c5f8backed Bucks78c2,800$2,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6162441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x81f0…cbb1backed Bucks79c2,799$2,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.758765.5%57 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbec4…637fbacked Jazz4c2,747$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9353149.3%262 W · 269 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Jazz20c2,746$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.325,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6b6…d3eebacked Jazz22c2,727$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80f0…1ebebacked Jazz10c2,631$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25012149.6%60 W · 61 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05c3…3f7fbacked Jazz5c2,612$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126140%0 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd97…feecbacked Bucks78c2,600$2,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.