NBA · resolved market
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 26.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dda01e09329d6194163a4e2fa82a0959fc2c8118da6b608cf9b848ffb4842aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,526 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,799.99 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Yes | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,699.97 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked No | 48c | 7,672$3,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,682.56 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked No | 48c | 6,903$3,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,310.51 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Yes | 51c | 3,056$1,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,503.8 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 46c | 2,893$1,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345.09 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked No | 47c | 1,498$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.82 | 473 | 54.8%259 W · 214 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed No | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 369 | 54.7%202 W · 167 L | +28.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 51c | 974.61$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.56 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 52c | 916.2$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.28 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 48c | 813.53$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.49 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Yes | 53c | 570$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.9 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked No | 48c | 506.25$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eed…85a9backed No | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 314 | 55.1%173 W · 141 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…a1b0backed No | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked No | 48c | 498.96$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.5 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked No | 49c | 439$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.11 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2271…8170backed Yes | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 181 | 47%85 W · 96 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4c2cbacked No | 47c | 394.47$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 174 | 54%94 W · 80 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e9…6d8ebacked Yes | 53c | 375$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.25 | 154 | 46.1%71 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed No | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…a3b9backed Yes | 53c | 253.36$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…176bbacked No | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Yes | 50c | 247.84$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.92 | 405 | 46.9%190 W · 215 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab7…d03cbacked No | 48c | 229.17$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca0f…780bbacked No | 46c | 208.7$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked No | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 434 | 47.5%206 W · 228 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 47c | 206.15$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.91 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…b0b3backed No | 48c | 202.08$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 232 | 56.9%132 W · 100 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd63d…8c40backed Yes | 53c | 200.98$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.98 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | +14.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…1e01backed No | 48c | 170$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd598…c67cbacked No | 48c | 112.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked No | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 649 | 44.7%290 W · 359 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47b8…76f2backed No | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…8518backed Yes | 67c | 97.01$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked No | 48c | 94.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…6cb7backed No | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef4e…a79abacked No | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf392…bb0dbacked No | 47c | 65.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2c…9374backed No | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…b654backed No | 47c | 64.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 48c | 64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8b…8925backed No | 47c | 63.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…7ca8backed No | 47c | 59.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed No | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb83d…3aa2backed Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 240 | 42.9%103 W · 137 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 45c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked No | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd25c…fe19backed No | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x788c…4a44backed No | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed No | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 326 | 54.3%177 W · 149 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…f3b8backed No | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 26.5this page
- Ace Bailey: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Bobby Portis: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Jazz vs. BucksBucks won
- Jazz vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Jazz vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Bucks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Bucks: O/U 234.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Bucks: O/U 235.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Bucks: O/U 236.5Under won
- Keyonte George: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Keyonte George: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Keyonte George: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Kyle Filipowski: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Kyle Filipowski: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Ousmane Dieng: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Spread: Bucks (-10.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bucks (-11.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bucks (-9.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.