NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a4e23cb192f2d3b529e58bd02844c9a6c1d2b819e8bcf2365c421a62f35d3ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,892 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 49c | 30,298$14,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,843.04 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Under | 51c | 30,000$15,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,700 | 603 | 51.4%310 W · 293 L | +16.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a57…2afabacked Under | 52c | 6,620$3,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,177.4 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 47c | 5,992$2,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,816.21 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 49c | 5,497$2,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,691.05 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 4,684$2,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,211.06 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 51c | 4,270$2,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,092.5 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Under | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880 | 139 | 54.7%76 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…f708backed Over | 47c | 2,632$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237 | 194 | 45.4%88 W · 106 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 48c | 2,625$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e9…a60cbacked Over | 50c | 944$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Over | 47c | 778.72$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 2c | 665.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 47c | 544.85$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.08 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 48c | 480.36$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.08 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4996…5e5ebacked Over | 48c | 260.42$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 53c | 255.58$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.11 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 54c | 233.28$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.97 | 545 | 49.5%270 W · 275 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4694…b6b2backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 46c | 186.91$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.93 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Under | 53c | 147.3$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.63 | 140 | 46.4%65 W · 75 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62da…2fdabacked Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df1…6b99backed Under | 52c | 89.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 47c | 76.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…c72bbacked Under | 53c | 71.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Over | 48c | 68.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 234 | 46.2%108 W · 126 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 37c | 54.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 45c | 54.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Over | 48c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Over | 48c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…a4f0backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…2db8backed Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked Under | 55c | 37.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 48c | 35.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 648 | 44.8%290 W · 358 L | -32.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc3…1e73backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Over | 43c | 25.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 45c | 24.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe53…d91fbacked Under | 54c | 19.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 60c | 18.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb6…8de2backed Under | 67c | 15.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5this page
- Ace Bailey: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Bobby Portis: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Jazz vs. BucksBucks won
- Jazz vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Jazz vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Bucks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Bucks: O/U 234.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Bucks: O/U 235.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Bucks: O/U 236.5Under won
- Keyonte George: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Keyonte George: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Keyonte George: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Kyle Filipowski: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Kyle Filipowski: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Ousmane Dieng: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Spread: Bucks (-10.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bucks (-11.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bucks (-9.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.