Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-01-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec7c9c2ceeabe4210bb72b5439c9d0dc35323f38a52299df0a827d2e9f1715f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 35c | 30,000$10,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,500 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 65c | 20,370$13,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,134.45 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 65c | 8,652$5,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,027.88 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 65c | 6,417$4,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,224.74 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Yes | 34c | 3,603$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 34c | 2,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked No | 68c | 1,600$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x634f…8295backed Yes | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked Yes | 34c | 400$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 26c | 378.78$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.78 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981c…7f14backed Yes | 36c | 376.37$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x314c…7bbdbacked Yes | 42c | 244.47$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 67c | 236.49$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.45 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…e7b5backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Yes | 34c | 197.68$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 34c | 160$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 36c | 145$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 40c | 118$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 34c | 114.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce70…0be2backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 34c | 94.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…3d22backed Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 62c | 60.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…aed4backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8e…305abacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…993dbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 19c | 58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e3…045abacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 34c | 47.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1758…5d73backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed No | 66c | 34.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc82b…e65abacked No | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed No | 66c | 26.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -6.5wins | -0.29per pick | 48cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked No | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed No | 66c | 18.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 62c | 17.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed No | 67c | 15.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked No | 65c | 15.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb24d…c330backed Yes | 71c | 14.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-01-18?this page
- Will VfL Bochum vs. SV Darmstadt 98 end in a draw?Yes won
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-01-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.