TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Suns

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Heat, Suns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,668,969
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,723,334

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,668,969 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,460 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Heat40c379,439$151,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227,990.0654539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Suns60c275,000$165,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165,00087144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Heat38c221,929$85,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136,624.7851844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a4d…619abacked Heat40c99,127$39,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,783.79475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+70.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Suns47c74,862$35,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,005.5821944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Suns7c73,305$4,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,915.751,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Suns61c62,190$37,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,713.8559653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Suns61c49,570$30,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,174.289,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Suns62c49,461$30,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,518.324,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Suns58c47,765$27,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,571.7577348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Heat36c45,000$16,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,599.9923245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Suns61c44,286$26,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,834.119560%117 W · 78 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Suns58c42,123$24,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,464.932,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heat63c38,912$24,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,235.795,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Suns61c38,726$23,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,511.3740446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Suns64c34,995$22,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,346.7435235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Suns61c33,042$20,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,300.931,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03a9…37babacked Heat36c32,414$11,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,744.810547.6%50 W · 55 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe12a…67efbacked Suns64c30,010$19,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,206.3515841.1%65 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Suns60c30,000$18,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,1002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Heat39c25,537$9,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,665.1828742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Suns64c25,110$15,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,969.420551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Suns0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Heat41c24,390$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,390.2476746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Heat43c21,800$9,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,466.281,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c14…7bc1backed Heat40c20,683$8,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,349.9611142.3%47 W · 64 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Suns63c20,000$12,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,600.2219048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5227…f9bdbacked Suns61c19,731$11,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,938.4110252.9%54 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Suns62c19,729$12,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,321.74,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Suns52c19,084$9,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,921.182,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Heat38c18,997$7,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,818.2919751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Suns33c18,641$6,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,162.522458.9%132 W · 92 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Heat45c18,473$8,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,090.014,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a35…2fadbacked Heat39c18,000$7,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,9803138.7%12 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Suns63c16,627$10,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,536.742,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcad4…c108backed Heat36c16,332$5,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,452.766651.5%34 W · 32 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Suns0c15,939$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.918820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb78…5206backed Suns40c14,825$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0002733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Suns0c14,582$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7764517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Suns36c13,974$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00020758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed Suns62c13,900$8,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,641.015251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Suns63c13,742$8,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,698.861,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Suns37c13,346$4,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,940.091,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x55a1…db28backed Suns33c12,942$4,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2415541.8%23 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8d75…c09fbacked Suns62c12,376$7,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,6732334.8%8 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Heat68c11,193$7,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,581.6839842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2339…39b5backed Heat40c11,000$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,599.952100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+164.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b11…c12ebacked Suns59c11,000$6,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,489.9320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Suns61c10,661$6,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,502.9117554.9%96 W · 79 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Suns60c10,289$6,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,179.151,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f04…4502backed Suns1c10,189$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.64728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x61a1…6657backed Suns63c10,110$6,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,323.3627758.8%163 W · 114 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked Heat35c10,001$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,500.6319150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Suns34c9,855$3,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,369.461,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Suns61c8,794$5,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,354.426,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Suns49c8,586$4,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,201.58,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Suns60c8,317$4,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9902,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Suns61c8,197$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00044352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92d8…0924backed Suns60c8,100$4,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,89324045.4%109 W · 131 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd2b…7f04backed Suns61c7,900$4,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,817.968348.2%40 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed Heat61c7,848$4,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,075.2614751%75 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Suns63c7,830$4,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,932.911940.3%48 W · 71 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Suns60c7,800$4,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,68058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Suns63c7,555$4,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,759.7528649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Heat52c7,374$3,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,525.9746145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c28…7ba5backed Heat44c7,199$3,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,031.4413148.9%64 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Suns63c7,000$4,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,42035251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Heat55c6,745$3,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,059.8585344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Suns60c6,694$4,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000.972,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2a9…c8c6backed Suns61c6,610$4,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,032944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid+12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc75a…8a8fbacked Heat39c6,527$2,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,981.334100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+99.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x12fd…90c0backed Heat38c6,173$2,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,827.4428439.8%113 W · 171 L+0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Heat62c6,126$3,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,327.761,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Suns61c6,000$3,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6305455.6%30 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Suns35c5,711$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,99912541.6%52 W · 73 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Heat39c5,678$2,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,463.5762347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Suns36c5,581$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00038046.6%177 W · 203 L-1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Suns36c5,495$1,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,963.7238540.3%155 W · 230 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Suns59c5,494$3,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,261.6455346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf26…39a6backed Suns62c5,400$3,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3483351.5%17 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Suns62c5,396$3,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,343.331,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Suns36c5,316$1,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,932.2161939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9eee…0a68backed Suns26c5,119$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,340.39825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb611…e44dbacked Suns60c5,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Heat69c4,555$3,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,397.615250.7%77 W · 75 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Heat41c4,477$1,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,634.211,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed Suns62c4,445$2,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,755.725534.5%19 W · 36 L-6.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf895…be08backed Suns2c4,383$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.79425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6879…e06fbacked Suns57c4,380$2,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,496.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa944…fc24backed Suns57c4,375$2,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,493.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3996…efb7backed Heat43c4,370$1,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,490.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c85…0b76backed Heat43c4,370$1,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,490.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Suns47c4,308$2,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,013.2566744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8be0…8e0bbacked Heat43c4,300$1,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4511100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fc5…0eb0backed Suns57c4,290$2,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,445.310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9772…4867backed Heat59c4,171$2,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,713.53666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Heat65c4,156$2,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.213,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Suns58c4,135$2,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,397.731,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21d4…84bdbacked Suns61c4,128$2,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5187850%39 W · 39 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Suns37c4,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48039744.3%176 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.