NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Suns: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bf9fdad3b4c3eed186ae5fae344f210200d5919d7855948ee68d42857705c9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Under | 53c | 8,696$4,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,098.01 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 46c | 5,050$2,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,343.33 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Over | 47c | 3,191$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Under | 53c | 2,830$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.19 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Under | 55c | 2,451$1,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.95 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Over | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 8c | 1,498$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.38 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 1,216$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.12 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 54c | 823.99$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.37 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa93c…60e3backed Under | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 71c | 384.22$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.08 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Over | 46c | 348.91$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.5 | 324 | 50.6%164 W · 160 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 336.71$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.73 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Over | 30c | 277.76$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.22 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Under | 79c | 231$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 271 | 44.3%120 W · 151 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 47c | 227.59$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.97 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…7680backed Under | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0f…30e6backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf28…9144backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 193$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.15 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3860…0efcbacked Over | 47c | 163.36$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.78 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Under | 75c | 134$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 47c | 112.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed9…3cdebacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 47c | 95.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…38cbbacked Under | 61c | 81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98df…41b7backed Over | 47c | 58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Over | 44c | 54.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Over | 46c | 49.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 54c | 48.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…24c2backed Under | 79c | 38.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Over | 47c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -15.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78d9…70f6backed Over | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 46c | 31.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 77c | 30.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Under | 55c | 30.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +10.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Over | 48c | 29.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 197 | 48.2%95 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 59c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Over | 46c | 25.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Under | 53c | 25.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 409 | 60.6%248 W · 161 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 229.5this page
- Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Heat vs. SunsHeat won
- Heat vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 224.5Under won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 225.5Under won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 226.5Under won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 227.5Under won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 228.5Under won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Suns (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Suns (-3.5)Heat won
- Spread: Suns (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Suns (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Suns (-6.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.