NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Suns: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0eafafc7ceafb3be42851edca9a750ca65ae300d182b76920ef98c07f6566abd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3926…7e9ebacked Over | 54c | 11,558$6,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,240.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 46c | 7,000$3,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,780 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 6,250$2,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,389.67 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…3ff3backed Over | 54c | 5,683$3,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,069 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Over | 50c | 4,258$2,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,129 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3a…3246backed Under | 46c | 3,775$1,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,038.26 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 50c | 1,838$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.12 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 1,545$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.08 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Over | 56c | 1,368$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.9 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 856.49$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.92 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Under | 47c | 599.99$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.9 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…0927backed Under | 50c | 500.13$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.13 | 188 | 52.7%99 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 10c | 412$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Under | 47c | 335$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.55 | 239 | 46.4%111 W · 128 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Under | 46c | 333$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.82 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…4ec0backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 50c | 152.26$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.63 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Over | 53c | 109$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3d…2068backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 49c | 95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 293 | 52.6%154 W · 139 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf54b…8a63backed Under | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Under | 46c | 69.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Over | 48c | 68.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Under | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01b6…2de9backed Over | 55c | 57.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 53c | 53.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 53c | 42.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…7073backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 108 | 42.6%46 W · 62 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 348 | 49.7%173 W · 175 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Under | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 197 | 48.2%95 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 55c | 24.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed Over | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 187 | 57.2%107 W · 80 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc503…b82cbacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 224.5this page
- Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Heat vs. SunsHeat won
- Heat vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 225.5Under won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 226.5Under won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 227.5Under won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 228.5Under won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 229.5Under won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Suns (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Suns (-3.5)Heat won
- Spread: Suns (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Suns (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Suns (-6.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.